OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep oil production unchanged for the first quarter of 2026, pausing its drive to recapture market share amid growing concerns about a looming supply glut and weakening prices.
The decision by the group which pumps roughly half of the world’s oil comes as the United States intensifies efforts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, a move that could ease sanctions on Moscow and potentially increase global supply. A failed deal, however, risks further curbs on Russian exports.
Brent crude settled near US$63 a barrel on Friday, down about 15 percent so far this year.
“The message from the group was clear: stability outweighs ambition at a time when the market outlook is deteriorating rapidly,” said Jorge Leon, a former OPEC official and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
Eight OPEC+ countries have already paused planned output hikes for the first quarter after adding some 2.9 million barrels per day to the market since April 2025. Sunday’s meeting reaffirmed that pause, the group said.
OPEC+ still has about 3.24 million bpd of cuts in place roughly 3 percent of global demand unchanged by Sunday’s talks. These include a 2 million bpd cut running through end-2026 and 1.24 million bpd of the 1.65 million bpd in voluntary curbs that eight members began unwinding in October.
The group also approved a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity for setting new quotas from 2027. The review will run from January to September 2026, according to sources.
A single firm will evaluate capacity for 19 of the 22 OPEC+ members, while countries under sanctions will be assessed separately or via an average of their August–October 2026 output, the sources said.
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