West Africa’s coastal economies are facing renewed investor scrutiny after an attempted coup in Benin briefly disrupted operations in Cotonou and revived debate over the long-term stability of key trade and energy corridors that connect the region to global markets. Although President Patrice Talon’s administration swiftly reasserted control, diplomats, port authorities and financial analysts say the incident underscores how vulnerable the region’s commercial lifelines have become as insecurity migrates from the Sahel toward the Gulf of Guinea.
Benin’s economy may be small, but its strategic role is enormous. Cotonou Port and the country’s road networks serve as vital arteries for landlocked Niger and parts of Nigeria’s northwest, enabling imports of machinery, industrial supplies and consumer goods. The same corridor is essential to future integration plans, including the Lagos–Abidjan transport megaproject and expansions within the West African Power Pool (WAPP).
For investors, the failed mutiny was a reminder that the regional risk map is shifting south, and that confidence in the coastal corridor cannot be taken for granted.
The Cotonou–Niamey axis has long been one of West Africa’s busiest trade routes, handling over 40 percent of Niger’s external trade before diplomatic ties ruptured last year and Niamey’s junta began pivoting toward Togo. Even amid strained relations, the corridor maintains a vast informal economy and supports thousands of transport jobs.
Cotonou Port, which processed more than 12 million tonnes of cargo last year, remains a cornerstone of Benin’s GDP and foreign exchange stability. It has attracted sustained investment from French, Belgian and Japanese partners, making it one of the region’s highest-performing mid-sized ports.
While the immediate market reaction to the coup attempt was subdued, no berths were shut, and operations remained uninterrupted, shipping firms confirmed receiving client inquiries about emergency diversion options to Lomé or Tema. The sensitivity of the supply chain was unmistakable.
“For global cargo providers, the question is never today,” one logistics executive said. “It’s what this means six months from now. Instability at a single coastal node can disrupt the entire regional chain.”
The incident also casts a shadow over the region’s energy integration ambitions. Benin is central to several WAPP projects, including the North Core Transmission Project, a 330kV line linking Nigeria, Niger, Burkina Faso and Benin to boost cross-border power trade.
Although construction has moved forward despite unrest in the Sahel, analysts note that any sign of political instability in Benin complicates risk assessments for lenders, concessionaires and technical partners. At the recent West Africa Energy Conference in Accra, delegates stressed that long-term transmission infrastructure requires political continuity, something a coup attempt, even a failed one, threatens to undermine.
Benin also hosts part of the Nigeria–Benin 330kV interconnection, a key export route for surplus Nigerian electricity. Concerns now linger over future maintenance, coordination and the creditworthiness of bilateral agreements if the political environment becomes unpredictable.
Renewable energy developers exploring coastal wind projects and utility-scale solar in northern Benin are also expected to revisit political risk premiums.
While Benin’s sovereign spreads did not spike sharply in the immediate aftermath, Eurobond analysts warn that upcoming ratings cycles may reflect heightened scrutiny. Benin has traditionally stood out among frontier markets due to macroeconomic stability, an IMF-supported reform agenda and the CFA franc peg.
But political shocks can quickly seep into fiscal planning, balance-of-payments expectations and external debt strategy. Any aftershocks, purges, policy reversals or heavy-handed security crackdowns, would carry weight.
Foreign direct investment reached US$470 million in 2023, driven by port upgrades, agribusiness and energy infrastructure. Sustaining that inflow now depends on persuading investors that the coup attempt was an exception, not a warning signal.
The coup attempt also heightens concerns in Nigeria, West Africa’s largest economy, already grappling with currency instability, inflation and widespread insecurity. Nigeria and Benin share over 800 kilometres of porous land border, with deeply intertwined supply chains.
Southwestern Nigerian manufacturing depends on Cotonou for chemicals, spare parts and packaging materials. Re-export traders rely on Benin’s relatively smoother customs processes. Any instability in Benin would disrupt these flows and compound Nigeria’s existing economic pressures.
The Lagos–Cotonou section of the US$15 billion Lagos–Abidjan Corridor Highway could also face delays if political uncertainty persists.
Future-looking concerns: insurance, premiums and supply-chain resilience
Maritime insurers are expected to revise risk guidance for vessels calling at Cotonou. While a broad premium hike is unlikely, exporters may adopt hedging strategies or staggered shipment plans to reduce exposure.
Major consumer goods companies operating across Nigeria and Ghana have already begun exploring redundancy routes through Lomé and Tema. The Benin incident may accelerate that shift, potentially eroding Cotonou’s market share if it becomes viewed as a heightened-risk node.
However, some analysts urge caution. The rapid suppression of the coup suggests cohesion within Benin’s security apparatus. The country’s port investments, regional partnerships and energy interconnection commitments give it strong incentives to maintain political stability.
A region at an inflection point
The broader landscape remains fragile. Since 2020, a chain of coups has redrawn the region’s political map, creating an arc of uncertainty from Guinea to Sudan. Investors fear that the instability consuming the Sahel could seep further south, threatening coastal states that anchor West Africa’s logistics and financial systems.
With global supply chains already strained by Red Sea disruptions and South African port congestion, any additional uncertainty in West Africa, a major hub for cocoa, cotton, re-exports and consumer goods, is unwelcome.
For now, Cotonou’s port is open, cargo keeps moving and the Talon administration appears firmly in charge. But the attempted coup has forced businesses to revisit assumptions about the region’s resilience at a time when global investors are showing heightened interest in logistics, digital infrastructure and energy projects.
Benin remains stable, but that stability now carries an asterisk. Investors will be closely watching how ECOWAS and the government manage the aftermath. The stakes extend far beyond a single political shock.
Nigeria confirms military action in Benin to restore constitutional order
