Uganda’s first oil revenues may arrive later than widely expected, with the country’s petroleum regulator cautioning that proceeds are unlikely to materialise in 2026 despite plans to start pumping crude next year.
Ernest Rubondo, the executive director of the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU), told the 6th Annual National Content Conference in Kampala that although commercial production at the Tilenga and Kingfisher fields is scheduled to begin in mid-2026, significant earnings will only come months after crude is shipped to the international market.
“Many people talk about first oil, but they have not drilled down into what first oil actually means,” Rubondo said. “I will not say which day is first oil, but each one of you will know which of the days your first oil is.”
He said oil produced in the Albertine Graben must first be processed at central facilities before being handed over at the official delivery point the stage at which the government can declare crude ready for sale. Revenue will only be received after the oil is transported through the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), reaches the port of Tanga in Tanzania, is loaded onto vessels and payment is completed.
Once crude enters the 1,443-kilometre pipeline, the journey to Tanga is expected to take two to three months. “When it gets to Tanga, it is supposed to be put on a ship, and that’s where the ownership changes and the money changes hands,” Rubondo said. “Some people say, for me, first oil is when it’s on a ship and I’ve earned my money. So first oil has those four specific phases.”
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He urged Ugandans to appreciate why analysts and financiers anticipate a lag between the start of production and the arrival of first oil revenues, noting that commercial timelines differ from the political expectations often attached to oil projects.
Uganda discovered commercially viable crude reserves in 2006, raising hopes that oil wealth would help finance infrastructure projects and narrow fiscal gaps. But progress has repeatedly been slowed by negotiations over commercial terms, environmental concerns and delays to the $5 billion EACOP project, which will carry Ugandan crude to global markets.
Despite Rubondo’s caution, the government insists that first oil remains on track for 2026. State Minister for Energy Opolot Okasai said that, for official purposes, first oil will be realised the moment crude begins to flow from the Tilenga and Kingfisher wells next year.
He urged Ugandans to prepare for opportunities that will emerge during the production phase, including in logistics, manufacturing and local service provision.
The Tilenga project, operated by TotalEnergies, is expected to produce up to 190,000 barrels per day, while CNOOC’s Kingfisher field is projected to add around 40,000 barrels. Combined, the two developments form the backbone of Uganda’s long-delayed commercial oil programme.
But with the pipeline still under construction and export procedures not yet operational, oil analysts say the first revenue inflows will depend heavily on how quickly crude can move from wellheads to international buyers. For ordinary Ugandans, that means the arrival of oil money long viewed as a symbol of national economic transformation may come slightly later than political declarations suggest.
