Nigeria’s aviation sector recorded a sharp slowdown in growth in the third quarter of 2025, even as passengers continue to grapple with skyrocketing ticket prices, according to the latest figures from the Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS Gross Domestic Product report for Q3 2025 showed that the nominal year-on-year growth of air transport fell to 2.88 percent, down sharply from 30.60 percent in Q2 and 57.21 percent in Q1 of 2025. Despite the weaker growth rate, the value of output in the sector increased, with air transport GDP rising from ₦78.71 billion (US$107 million) in Q3 2024 to ₦80.98 billion (US$110 million) in Q3 2025.
Quarter-on-quarter figures reveal the volatility of the industry. The sector’s output dropped by roughly 64.7 percent between Q1 and Q2 2025, falling from ₦105.77 billion (US$144 million) to ₦37.35 billion (US$51 million), before rebounding by about 116.8 percent to ₦80.98 billion (US$110 million) in Q3.
However, when compared with the same period in 2024, the year-on-year nominal growth rate collapsed, reflecting the difficulty of sustaining earlier gains. The sector’s share of total GDP also remained modest, accounting for 0.07 per cent in Q3 2025, slightly down from 0.08 per cent in Q3 2024.
Real GDP figures for aviation show a recovery from deep contraction in 2024. The sector posted negative growth throughout last year 9.51 per cent in Q1, –11.18 per cent in Q2, and –9.90 per cent in Q3. In 2025, air transport returned to positive growth, albeit modestly: –0.81 per cent in Q1, 6.34 per cent in Q2, and 1.60 per cent in Q3.
The slowdown comes amid soaring domestic airfares, raising concerns over affordability and the sector’s ability to sustain growth. Recent reports show one-way ticket prices on some domestic routes, particularly to the South-South and South-East, have surged by as much as 200 percent, with fares exceeding ₦300,000 (US$410), up from pre-holiday averages of around ₦120,000 (US$164).
In response, the Nigerian Senate summoned Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, and major airline operators for an emergency interface following nationwide complaints over the fare increases ahead of the festive season. Senator Buhari Abdulfatai, who sponsored the motion, warned that the rising ticket prices could disrupt national mobility and severely affect holiday travel plans for millions of Nigerians.
A market check of airline websites confirmed that fares on several routes had jumped by over 150 percent compared to pre-holiday prices, worsening concerns for passengers already coping with inflation and rising transport costs.
Meanwhile, the wider Nigerian economy continued to expand. GDP at current basic prices increased from ₦96.16 trillion (US$131 billion) in Q3 2024 to ₦113.59 trillion (US$155 billion) in Q3 2025, indicating that aviation’s slowdown is largely sector-specific rather than a reflection of broader economic weakness.
The NBS data underscore a highly volatile aviation industry: strong growth at the start of 2025 has given way to sharply decelerating year-on-year expansion, even as output remains above 2024 levels. Analysts warn that without intervention to stabilize fares and manage operational costs, the sector could face declining passenger demand and further pressure on growth.
Overview of the Nigerian Aviation sector and its growth
Nigeria’s aviation industry, composed of domestic airlines, international carriers, airports, and ancillary services, has shown signs of recovery following the COVID-19 downturn, though high airfares continue to pressure passengers.
The sector is regulated by the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), while airports are managed by the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN). Domestic carriers such as Air Peace, Arik Air, Dana Air, and Aero Contractors dominate the local market, with Air Peace leading in fleet size and passenger volume. Newer entrants like Overland Airways have also added capacity in recent years.
More than 40 international airlines operate in Nigeria, linking major hubs including Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt to global destinations. Lagos’s Murtala Muhammed International Airport (MMIA) remains the busiest airport in West Africa.
Passenger traffic in Nigeria has grown steadily over the past decade, fuelled by population growth, urbanisation, and a rising middle class. Pre-pandemic, domestic flights carried around 9–10 million passengers annually, with international flights adding over 5 million. COVID-19 caused a sharp contraction, but figures from 2023 to 2025 indicate recovery, with domestic traffic reaching 6–7 million passengers per year.
Despite its
