Inflation in Nigeria is expected to continue moderating into 2026, although analysts say a return to single-digit levels remains unlikely in the near term despite months of steady disinflation.
Headline inflation fell for an eighth consecutive month to 14.45 percent in November, in line with President Bola Tinubu’s end-2025 target of 15 percent and the federal government’s budget assumptions.
The decline follows the rebasing of Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index earlier this year, when the National Bureau of Statistics updated consumption weights and shifted the base year to 2024. The methodological change led to a sharp statistical drop in headline inflation from about 34.8 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January 2025.
Disinflation has accelerated since mid-year. From July to November, inflation declined by an average of roughly 1.9 percentage points per month. However, taking the full year into account including slower declines and a brief uptick earlier in 2025 the average monthly easing stands closer to one percentage point.
Under that more conservative trajectory, analysts say inflation would not fall into single digits until around April 2026 at the earliest.
Some economists are more optimistic. Ayo Teriba, chief executive of Economic Associates, said inflation could reach single digits as early as January 2026, citing base effects and post-festive price normalisation following December’s consumption surge.
Others caution against such expectations. Research firm SBM Intelligence projects that inflation will continue to slow but remain above the government’s target, warning that election-related spending and persistent food-price pressures could interrupt the downward trend.
Food prices have eased in recent months, supported by declines in the prices of key staples such as maize, sorghum, paddy rice and soybeans. The naira also strengthened modestly in November, appreciating 1.45 percent month-on-month to an average of 1,443.85 to the dollar.
As a result, food inflation fell to 11.08 percent in November from 13.12 percent in October, while core inflation eased to 18.04 percent from 18.69 percent, official data showed.
Despite the improving outlook, analysts say entrenched structural pressures mean Nigeria is likely to remain a double-digit inflation economy through much of 2026.
