Copper prices surged toward the US$13,000-a-tonne mark on Monday, buoyed by expectations of possible US import tariffs and mounting supply disruptions that are tightening the global market.
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper climbed as much as 6.6 percent to US$12,960 a tonne before easing slightly to around US$12,920 in Asian trading, according to Bloomberg data. The metal has risen more than 15 percent so far this month, one of its strongest performances in years.
The rally has been fuelled by growing speculation that Washington could impose tariffs on refined copper, prompting traders to accelerate shipments to the United States ahead of any policy move. The rush has drained inventories in other regions, exacerbating supply tightness.
US copper futures traded on Comex have been commanding a notable premium over LME prices, reflecting strong domestic demand and concerns about future availability should trade barriers be introduced.
Analysts say the tariff-driven reshuffling of supply has amplified already fragile market conditions. “We are seeing a dislocation in inventories that is pushing prices higher,” said one metals trader in Singapore. “Material is being pulled into the US at the expense of the rest of the world.”
The bullish momentum has also been reinforced by increasingly optimistic forecasts from major investment banks. Earlier this month, analysts at Citigroup said copper prices could climb above $13,000 a tonne by the second quarter of 2026, citing a combination of tightening supply and improving demand fundamentals.
“We remain convinced that copper has upside into 2026 amid several supportive tailwinds, including improving fundamentals and a more favourable macroeconomic environment,” Citigroup said in a note, forecasting a 2.5 percent increase in global end-use consumption next year.
J.P. Morgan has echoed that outlook. Gregory Shearer, the bank’s head of base and precious metals strategy, said a rare mix of inventory dislocations and supply shocks was creating conditions for sustained price strength.
“All in all, we think these unique dynamics of disjointed inventory and acute supply disruptions tightening the copper market add up to a bullish setup for copper and are enough to push prices above US$12,000 per tonne in the first half of 2026,” Shearer said.
Concerns over supply have intensified following a series of disruptions at major copper-producing sites this year. In May, Ivanhoe Mines reported a seismic event at its flagship operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, one of the world’s largest copper projects. The incident forced the company to cut its production guidance for both 2025 and 2026.
Ivanhoe had initially targeted output of at least 500,000 tonnes in 2025 but now expects production to peak at around 420,000 tonnes, a level it also projects for 2026. The downgrade has raised fears of a longer-term shortfall in new supply.
Further pressure came from Indonesia, where a landslide at the Grasberg mine the world’s second-largest copper operation disrupted operations. Freeport-McMoRan, which runs the site, said it would slash its planned copper output for 2026 by about 35 percent.
The setbacks come at a time when demand for copper is being driven by the global energy transition, including electric vehicles, renewable power networks and grid expansion. Industry analysts warn that years of underinvestment in new mines have left the market ill-prepared to absorb shocks.
While prices have cooled slightly from Monday’s peak, market participants say the underlying drivers remain firmly in place. With inventories thin, supply risks elevated and trade policy uncertainty looming, copper’s rally may have further room to run.
Many traders now see the US$13,000 threshold not as a ceiling, but as a potential stepping stone as the market heads into 2026 under increasingly tight conditions.
