Nigeria’s oil production fell by about six percent in November to roughly 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), the country’s upstream regulator said, highlighting continued volatility in output from Africa’s largest crude producer.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed the figures in its December 2025 National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production Report, published this week.
According to the data, national oil output weakened on a month-on-month basis, declining to 1.599 million bpd in November from 1.698 million bpd recorded in October.
The regulator said combined crude oil and condensate production during the month fluctuated significantly, ranging from a low of about 1.54 million bpd to a peak of 1.79 million bpd.
Nigeria has struggled in recent years to stabilise crude production amid challenges including oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment and operational disruptions. Output has frequently fallen below the country’s quota under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production agreement.
Despite the November decline, the NUPRC said Nigeria’s average crude oil production for the month stood at 96 percent of its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
“The average crude oil production of November was 96 percent of OPEC quota (1.5 mbpd),” the commission said in the report.
It added that daily average production in November amounted to 1,599,054 barrels per day, comprising crude oil output of 1,436,005 barrels per day and condensate production of 163,049 barrels per day.
Condensates, a light hydrocarbon liquid often produced alongside natural gas, are not subject to OPEC production limits and have increasingly helped cushion Nigeria’s overall liquids output.
The November figures underline the fragile recovery in Nigeria’s oil sector, even as authorities point to improved security around oil infrastructure and reforms aimed at boosting investment following the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
In recent months, the government has said stepped-up surveillance, including the use of private security contractors and community-based monitoring, has helped reduce crude theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta, Nigeria’s main oil-producing region.
However, analysts note that production remains vulnerable to technical outages, ageing infrastructure and delays in bringing new projects on stream.
Oil exports remain a critical source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, accounting for the bulk of export earnings and a significant share of government revenue. Fluctuations in output can therefore have wide-ranging implications for public finances, external reserves and exchange rate stability.
The authorities have set a medium-term target of lifting crude oil production above two million bpd, but achieving that goal will require sustained investment, improved operational efficiency and lasting security gains in the oil-producing areas.
For now, the November drop serves as a reminder that Nigeria’s oil output recovery remains uneven, even as policymakers seek to stabilise production and strengthen the broader energy sector.
