Nigeria swung back to a balance-of-payments surplus in the third quarter of 2025, buoyed by stronger export earnings, resilient diaspora remittances and renewed foreign capital inflows that helped rebuild the country’s external buffers, official data showed.
Africa’s largest oil producer recorded an overall balance-of-payments surplus of US$4.6 billion in the three months to September, reversing a deficit posted in the previous quarter, according to figures released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The improvement was anchored by a current-account surplus of US$3.42 billion, reflecting gains across trade, secondary income and financial flows, as the government presses ahead with reforms aimed at stabilising the economy and restoring investor confidence.
A wider goods trade surplus was the main driver of the turnaround. Nigeria posted a trade surplus of US$4.94 billion in the quarter, supported by higher crude oil exports and a sharp rise in refined petroleum shipments.
Crude exports climbed to US$8.45 billion, benefiting from improved production levels and firmer global prices, while exports of refined petroleum products surged 44 percent to US$2.29 billion.
The rise in refined fuel exports points to the impact of expanding domestic refining capacity, particularly the start-up of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, one of the largest single-train refineries in the world.
For decades, Nigeria has relied heavily on imports of refined fuels despite being a major crude oil exporter, a structural weakness that has drained foreign exchange and weighed on external accounts. The latest data suggest that dynamic is beginning to shift.
Total goods exports rose to US$15.24 billion during the quarter, while imports of refined petroleum products fell by 12.7 percent, easing pressure on foreign-exchange demand and improving the trade balance.
Workers’ remittances remained another critical pillar of Nigeria’s external position. The secondary income account recorded a surplus of US$5.5 billion, including US$5.24 billion in inflows from Nigerians living abroad.
Such remittances have become an increasingly important source of foreign exchange as authorities seek to reduce dependence on oil revenues and cushion the economy against commodity price swings.
Developments in the financial account also supported the overall balance. Nigeria posted a net lending position of $320 million in the quarter, reflecting stronger foreign participation in domestic markets.
Foreign direct investment inflows rose to US$720 million, while portfolio investment reached US$2.51 billion, driven by renewed non-resident interest in Nigerian debt and equity instruments.
The rebound in capital inflows comes as the government and central bank push through a series of reforms, including a more flexible exchange-rate regime, tighter monetary policy and measures to improve transparency in the foreign-exchange market.
Since mid-2023, authorities have dismantled multiple exchange rates and raised interest rates sharply in an effort to attract foreign capital, curb inflation and stabilise the naira, which had been under sustained pressure.
Nigeria’s external reserves rose to US$42.77 billion at the end of September, up from US$37.81 billion at the end of June, strengthening the central bank’s capacity to support the currency and meet external obligations.
The CBN said the third-quarter performance underscores improving external-sector fundamentals, firmer investor confidence and the cumulative impact of reforms in foreign exchange management, monetary policy and the domestic energy sector.
Analysts caution, however, that Nigeria’s external position remains vulnerable to oil price volatility, security challenges in oil-producing regions and global financial conditions that could affect capital flows.
Still, the return to a balance-of-payments surplus marks a positive signal for Africa’s most populous nation as it seeks to move from crisis stabilisation toward a more durable growth path heading into 2026.
