Egypt’s economy is expected to gather pace over the medium term, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth projected to reach 6.2 percent by the 2029/2030 fiscal year, the finance ministry said.
In its Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy covering fiscal years 2026/2027 to 2029/2030, the ministry forecast growth of around 5.0 percent in 2025/2026, rising to 5.3 percent in 2026/2027, before accelerating steadily toward the end of the decade.
The ministry attributed the improved outlook to the continued expansion of industrial production, rising infrastructure investment, the resilience of the tourism sector despite regional and geopolitical challenges, and stronger export competitiveness. These trends, it said, are unfolding alongside improved macroeconomic stability and the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime aligned with global and regional conditions.
Non-oil manufacturing is expected to remain the main driver of growth, with its contribution to GDP rising significantly over the medium term. The sector recorded real growth of 13.4 percent in 2024/2025, supported by deeper localisation of production, expanded export-support schemes and targeted incentives for high value-added industries.
These measures include interest-rate support for loans to productive sectors and dedicated programmes aimed at priority industrial activities, the ministry said.
Tourism is also expected to maintain strong momentum, benefiting from relative regional stability, the rollout of major national projects and expanded hotel capacity in key destinations such as the Red Sea and the North Coast. The long-awaited opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum is expected to further boost foreign currency inflows and employment.
Meanwhile, the communications and information technology sector posted growth of 14 percent in 2024/2025, driven by expanding outsourcing services, digital exports and broader technological opportunities, the ministry said.
Despite what it described as “exceptional” regional and global challenges, the ministry said the economy is set to continue its recovery and structural reform trajectory in 2026/2027. This momentum is expected to be supported by private investment, foreign direct investment and stronger contributions from productive and export-oriented sectors, alongside continued implementation of the economic reform programme and progress in reducing the state’s footprint in the economy.
Fiscal policy over the medium term will seek to balance discipline with support for economic activity, the ministry said, through measures aimed at boosting investor confidence, strengthening productive sectors and creating sustainable employment.
Within this framework, the government aims to reduce the budget-sector debt-to-GDP ratio to below 70 percent by 2030. The strategy relies on maintaining annual primary surpluses, improving budget revenues particularly tax revenues in a growth-friendly manner, and benefiting from an anticipated easing of interest rates.
Additional measures include using exceptional proceeds from the state exit programme to reduce debt, implementing debt-for-investment swap arrangements and further coordinated actions to strengthen debt sustainability.
The ministry said budget-sector debt had already declined from around 96 percent of GDP in June 2023 to about 84 percent by June 2025, a reduction of roughly 12 percentage points in two years. External debt of budget-sector entities fell by about $4 billion over the same period.
The government is targeting a primary surplus of 4 percent of GDP in 2025/2026, while continuing to expand social spending and investment in human development. Easing inflation and lower interest rates are expected to help reduce the overall budget deficit from 7.2 percent of GDP in 2024/2025 to around 4.9 percent by 2026/2027.
Tax revenues are projected to rise by about one percentage point of GDP annually in the current and next fiscal years, reaching roughly 14.4 percent of GDP in 2026/2027 and about 15.2 percent by 2029/2030, close to the lower range typically seen in emerging markets.
The ministry said it would continue prioritising spending on health, education and social protection, while supporting key sectors to improve basic services and raise development spending.
The Public Finance Strategy, issued on Sunday, will underpin preparation of the 2026/2027 budget and the medium-term budget framework, in line with Egypt’s unified public finance law. The government said the strategy aims to preserve stability, enhance competitiveness, attract private investment and deliver tangible improvements in living standards.
