Nigeria expects its economy to grow by 4.68 percent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, a more stable currency and continued structural reforms, Finance Minister Wale Edun said on Thursday, as Africa’s largest economy moves beyond crisis management into what the government calls a “consolidation phase”.
“Economic growth is expected to reach 4.68 percent in 2026,” Edun said at the launch of Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook report, adding that recent policy measures had stabilised key indicators and created the conditions for sustained expansion.
The growth forecast is higher than estimates published late last year by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which projected growth of 4.49 percent, and a more recent World Bank forecast of 4.4 percent.
Edun said Nigeria had emerged from a period of acute economic stress marked by surging inflation, currency instability and fiscal pressures, and was now focused on translating stability into growth, jobs and improved living standards.
“We are no longer in a crisis-management mode. We are in a consolidation phase,” he said.
More Read
Nigeria’s economy has undergone sweeping reforms since President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023, including the removal of a costly fuel subsidy and the unification of multiple exchange rates, measures long recommended by international lenders but politically sensitive due to their short-term impact on prices and household incomes.
Edun said those reforms had helped stabilise the macroeconomic environment. Inflation, which peaked above 33 percent in 2024, eased to 14.45 percent in November 2025, according to official data. The government expects inflation to average about 16.5 percent in 2026.
Currency volatility has also moderated, with the naira trading below 1,500 to the dollar in recent weeks, while foreign exchange reserves have risen to $45.5 billion.
The finance minister warned, however, that the government could not afford to slow or reverse its reform agenda, arguing that the consolidation phase would determine whether recent gains translate into broad-based prosperity.
“The consolidation phase will be supported by new structural reforms,” Edun said.
He outlined plans to fully digitise public revenue collection, improve transparency in public finances and implement a revised tax framework designed to protect low-income households while expanding the tax base.
Under the proposed tax approach, basic food items and small businesses would benefit from exemptions, while compliance would be broadened among higher-income earners and larger firms. The government also plans reforms to improve the business environment and invest in human capital development, Edun said.
Nigeria’s reform programme has drawn mixed reactions domestically. While investors and international institutions have welcomed the changes, labour unions and civil society groups have raised concerns about rising living costs and the pace of economic relief for ordinary Nigerians.
Edun sought to allay concerns about public debt, which has risen sharply in nominal terms to around 152 trillion naira, or about $107 billion.
He said the increase largely reflects accounting changes rather than fresh borrowing. About 30 trillion naira relates to previously unrecorded central bank financing known as “Ways and Means”, while nearly 49 trillion naira resulted from the revaluation of external debt following exchange rate reforms.
“Despite the increase in the nominal amount, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen to 36.1%,” Edun said, adding that it remains among the lowest in Africa and well below the global average.
Economists say Nigeria’s outlook will depend on its ability to sustain reforms while managing social pressures and boosting non-oil growth. Oil production, a key source of foreign exchange and government revenue, remains vulnerable to theft and operational challenges.
The government says it is working to improve security in oil-producing regions and diversify the economy through agriculture, manufacturing and services.
If reforms hold and macroeconomic stability is maintained, officials argue Nigeria could enter a period of stronger, more inclusive growth. But analysts caution that global risks, including commodity price volatility and tighter financial conditions, could still pose challenges.
For now, the government says its focus is firmly on consolidation – ensuring that hard-won stability delivers lasting economic gains.
