Business leaders across the world are increasingly prioritising supply chain resilience over traditional efficiency models, as geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and technological shifts redefine how global commerce operates. This shift is outlined in the World Economic Forum’s Global Value Chains Outlook 2026, released during the WEF Annual Meeting in Davos.
According to the report, 74% of senior executives now regard supply chain resilience as a core driver of growth rather than a defensive safeguard. The findings are based on more than 100 consultations with industry, government and academic leaders, alongside survey responses from over 300 executives across advanced and emerging economies. The WEF describes the current environment as one of “structural volatility,” where disruption is no longer episodic but embedded in the global economic system.
Trade dynamics in 2025 provided a clear illustration of this shift. Escalating tariffs between major economies reshaped more than $400 billion in global trade flows, while disruptions along key shipping routes contributed to a 40% year-on-year increase in container shipping costs, according to data cited by the WEF and the World Bank. Manufacturing output in advanced economies expanded at its slowest pace since the 2009 global financial crisis, while governments worldwide introduced more than 3,000 new trade and industrial policy measures in 2025 alone, three times the level recorded a decade earlier.
Kiva Allgood, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum, noted that volatility has become a permanent feature of the global economy rather than a temporary shock. She said competitive advantage is increasingly shaped by foresight, flexibility and ecosystem coordination, with companies and countries that jointly build these capabilities better positioned to attract investment and secure supply continuity.
The report highlights a decisive move away from “just-in-time” supply chains designed to minimise costs, toward “just-in-case” models that emphasise redundancy, optionality and continuity. Companies are redesigning operating models to function under ongoing uncertainty rather than attempting to predict isolated disruptions. Per Kristian Hong, a partner at global consultancy Kearney, which collaborated on the report, said supply chain disruption in 2026 is expected to be constant, driven by geopolitical fragmentation, changing trade rules, labour shortages and accelerating technological change.
To support this transition, the WEF launched the Manufacturing and Supply Chain Readiness Navigator, a digital platform designed to translate global indices into actionable intelligence. The tool enables governments to identify competitiveness gaps and prioritise reforms, while companies can assess infrastructure readiness, workforce capacity and ecosystem maturity when evaluating manufacturing locations and investment decisions.
Several national and subnational case studies cited in the report illustrate how resilience-oriented strategies are already shaping competitiveness. Ireland’s Skillnet Ireland programme aligns government, industry and educational institutions to deliver subsidised, enterprise-led upskilling tailored to evolving industrial needs. China’s New Infrastructure initiative has strengthened industrial connectivity through large-scale investment in 5G and digital infrastructure, enabling real-time coordination across manufacturing networks. In the Middle East, Qatar has implemented a national dashboard that tracks essential food supplies in real time, supporting early intervention, buffer stock management and data-driven responses to disruptions.
In India, Tamil Nadu stands out as a resilient manufacturing hub due to political stability, predictable regulation, targeted incentives, robust infrastructure and a skilled labour pool. The WEF notes that such subnational strategies demonstrate how consistent policy and institutional reliability can attract long-term manufacturing investment despite broader global uncertainty.
The supply chain outlook aligns with broader macroeconomic assessments released in Davos. The International Monetary Fund projects global growth to ease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2026, with advanced economies expanding at around 1.5% and emerging markets just above 4%. The WEF Chief Economists’ Outlook similarly indicates that while sentiment has improved slightly since late 2025, risks remain tilted to the downside due to stretched asset valuations, rising public debt and persistent geopolitical tensions.
Trade policy uncertainty remains a key accelerant of structural change. During the Davos meeting, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated tariff threats against several European countries, prompting the European Union to prepare retaliatory measures covering up to €93 billion in U.S. goods, according to EU officials. Supply chain analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty of this nature is likely to accelerate nearshoring, regional manufacturing hubs and multi-local value chains that reduce dependence on single sourcing locations.
The WEF argues that the global economy is entering a phase where resilience, adaptability and coordination matter more than marginal efficiency gains. For businesses and governments alike, investment decisions are increasingly shaped by the ability to withstand shocks rather than optimise for stable conditions that no longer exist.
Morocco sees surge in new businesses as entrepreneurship grows
