ARK Invest, the U.S. asset management firm led by Cathie Wood, says Bitcoin, tokenization of real-world assets and decentralized finance (DeFi) will be central drivers in the next phase of growth for the digital asset industry, projecting that the total market could reach about $28 trillion by 2030. This outlook is outlined in ARK’s Big Ideas 2026 report, which lays out long-term forecasts for cryptocurrencies and related technologies.
According to ARK, the digital asset market, currently valued in the low trillions of dollars, could expand at an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 61 percent to reach roughly US$28 trillion by 2030. The firm expects Bitcoin to account for about 70 percent of that total, positioning it as the dominant component of the broader digital ecosystem. In ARK’s base case, Bitcoin’s market cap could approach $16 trillion, with implied price levels pointing toward significant long-term valuation expansion.
Institutional adoption is a key pillar of ARK’s forecast. The report highlights growing participation in Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate holdings, noting that U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs and public company allocations have captured an increasing share of Bitcoin’s circulating supply in recent years. The firm argues that this trend reflects a maturation of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class, similar in some ways to gold and other stores of value.
Beyond Bitcoin, ARK sees tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) as a major source of future value. The firm estimates that tokenized assets, digital representations of tangible financial instruments such as equities, bonds and other securities, could grow dramatically by 2030, reaching up to US$11 trillion in combined on-chain value. This reflects growing interest from traditional finance in leveraging blockchain technology to improve settlement times, reduce friction and broaden access to capital markets.
DeFi is also featured prominently in ARK’s thesis. While still smaller than centralized finance today, decentralized financial protocols are expected to expand their footprint as infrastructure and regulatory clarity improve. ARK forecasts that smart contract platforms supporting DeFi, particularly major networks like Ethereum and Solana, could collectively build substantial market value and contribute meaningfully to overall digital asset growth.
ARK’s projections frame the digital asset ecosystem’s evolution as a shift from speculative cycles to structural capital formation, where innovation, institutional allocation and new financial infrastructure drive long-term expansion. The firm notes that broad adoption of Bitcoin and tokenized assets could reshape traditional investment landscapes and position digital assets as an increasingly important component of global capital markets by the end of the decade.
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