Nigeria’s economy is projected to expand by 5.5 percent in 2026, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) said on Thursday, citing what it described as the government’s “policy-driven economic model” under President Bola Tinubu.
The projection exceeds forecasts by major global institutions, highlighting a growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic trajectory. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) currently forecasts 4.4 percent growth for 2026, while the World Bank has revised its earlier estimate of 3.7 percent upward to 4.4 percent. The Nigerian government has set its own target at 4.68 percent, and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry projects growth of up to 7 percent, according to IMPI.
In a policy statement signed by Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI chairman, the think tank argued that the country’s economic outlook reflects a deliberate shift away from Nigeria’s historical reliance on crude oil revenues. “We have seen a paradigm shift from perennial dependency on oil earnings to policy-driven economic facilitation, which uses government regulations, institutional frameworks, and incentives to reduce bottlenecks, lower costs, and accelerate economic activities, particularly in trade and investment,” the statement said.
IMPI said the approach focuses on fostering inclusive and sustainable growth, improving efficiency, and removing bureaucratic obstacles that have historically hampered private sector participation. The think tank pointed to the convergence of domestic and international growth forecasts as evidence of broad confidence in Nigeria’s economic direction.
“The IMF, which previously projected a more modest growth rate, now acknowledges the resurgence of the Nigerian economy,” IMPI said, noting that the fund’s revised 4.4 percent projection for 2026 is its highest in 17 years. IMPI described this as a reflection of the country’s improved macroeconomic fundamentals, including foreign exchange stability, disinflation, and a more investment-friendly regulatory environment.
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The group also highlighted the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, increased domestic production, and a growing entrepreneurial sector in shaping the country’s growth prospects. IMPI emphasized that a policy-led model can provide a sustainable framework for economic expansion beyond oil-dependent revenues.
IMPI contrasted its projection with other assessments, including PwC, which projects a conservative 4.3% growth conditioned on higher oil prices, and the Nigeria Economic Summit Group, which anticipates 5.5%. The policy group argued that the aggregation of these positive outlooks signals a clear shift toward higher productivity, stronger domestic consumption, and increased investor confidence.
The think tank also pointed to global economic trends and domestic reforms as drivers of growth. Reforms aimed at simplifying business registration, improving regulatory oversight, and incentivizing local manufacturing were cited as measures that reduce transaction costs and promote a more inclusive growth trajectory.
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IMPI concluded that the Nigerian economy under the Tinubu administration has entered a new phase of structural transformation. “The combination of domestic policy initiatives, stabilizing macroeconomic conditions, and supportive global factors creates an environment conducive to accelerated growth, job creation, and improved resilience against external shocks,” the statement said.
The projection underscores Nigeria’s ambition to reposition its economy on a diversified and sustainable growth path, moving away from historical reliance on oil exports toward broader trade, industrialization, and investment-led development. Analysts suggest that translating these forecasts into reality will depend on effective implementation of economic reforms, continued foreign and domestic investment, and stable political and macroeconomic conditions.
