ArcelorMittal has emerged as a rare non-Chinese driver of West Africa’s iron ore boom, securing a long-term mining deal in Liberia as Chinese investment reshapes the region’s sector.
Liberia’s parliament ratified a mineral development agreement with ArcelorMittal on Jan. 30, extending the company’s operations in the country until at least 2050. The accord underpins a planned $1.8 billion investment to quadruple Liberia’s iron ore output and marks a major step for the India-founded steel and mining group, which operates the country’s largest iron ore mine.
Currently, ArcelorMittal Liberia produces around 5 million tonnes of iron ore per year. The company plans to increase output to 15 million tonnes and ultimately 20 million tonnes annually. The expansion includes upgrades to the Tokadeh-Buchanan rail corridor, improvements to port infrastructure, and is scheduled for completion in 2026. Future plans envision the railway carrying up to 30 million tonnes per year.
Under the new agreement, ArcelorMittal will pay US$200 million for additional mining rights and retain guaranteed access to the rail network it is financing. Starting in October 2030, the railway will become independently operated, a move intended to improve efficiency, promote multi-user access, and bolster the sector’s impact on the national economy, Liberian President Joseph Boakai said.
ArcelorMittal currently accounts for roughly 90 percent of Liberia’s iron ore exports. GlobalData projects the company’s output will rise from 5.2 million tonnes in 2024 to 18 million tonnes by 2026, reinforcing Liberia’s position in the regional market. Most of this ore is exported to Europe to supply ArcelorMittal’s steel mills.
Across West Africa, however, Chinese companies dominate new iron ore projects. In Guinea, the $20 billion Simandou project backed primarily by Chinese investors is expected to export up to 120 million tonnes annually, with production forecast at 35.4 million tonnes in 2026. Baowu Resources, China’s largest steel producer, recently increased its stake in the Winning Consortium Simandou to 51%, while blocks 3 and 4 are operated by a joint venture of Australia’s Rio Tinto and China’s state-owned Chinalco.
Chinese firms also operate in Liberia. China Union acquired the Bong Mines concession in 2008 but has faced environmental scrutiny and limited production growth. In Sierra Leone, China Kingho Group is investing $1 billion to produce 10 million tonnes annually, with plans to expand to 30 million tonnes.
Despite the surge in production, local processing of iron ore remains limited across Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Most investments are geared toward exporting raw ore for overseas steel production rather than developing domestic steel-making capacity. Only Guinea’s Simandou project is exploring downstream processing, with feasibility studies for a steel mill or pellet plant required within two years.
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Analysts say this pattern highlights a gap between West Africa’s mineral wealth and its industrial output. According to the African Development Bank, Africa accounted for 4 percent of global iron ore production in 2023 but only 1.2 percent of global crude steel output, while China held 54 percent, of steelmaking capacity.
ArcelorMittal’s expansion in Liberia makes it an exception in a region where Chinese-backed projects dominate. By investing in local infrastructure, maintaining control of rail and port operations, and committing to long-term output growth, the company aims to secure its supply chain while contributing to Liberia’s mining revenue.
Observers say that while Liberia benefits from higher production volumes and export revenues, the broader West African iron ore boom continues to primarily serve foreign steel markets, underscoring the challenge of translating raw material wealth into domestic industrial development.
