Cocoa swollen shoot disease is worsening in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, putting around 15 percent of the country’s cocoa supplies at risk, according to a new study by non-profit sustainability group Enveritas.
The group said more than 41 percent of cocoa farms surveyed in Ivory Coast were infected during the 2024/25 October-to-September season, up sharply from 33 percent two seasons earlier. The findings are based on surveys of more than 11,600 cocoa farms across the country.
Swollen shoot disease, which is spread by small insects known as mealybugs, attacks cocoa trees by feeding on their leaves, buds and flowers. Infected trees may continue to produce cocoa in the early stages, but yields are reduced. Within five to 10 years, the disease typically kills the trees altogether.
Enveritas estimates the disease reduces cocoa yields by about 35 percent on infected farms. Given the scale of infection, this means roughly 15 percent of Ivory Coast’s cocoa production is currently at risk, it said.
“For companies sourcing cocoa from Ivory Coast, this trend may signal heightened supply risk, potential shifts in sourcing strategies, and an urgent need to target interventions more precisely,” Enveritas said in a statement.
Ivory Coast’s cocoa regulator, the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), declined to comment on the findings.
Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana together account for around half of global cocoa production, making developments in the region critical for global chocolate markets. The latest data highlight lingering structural risks to supply, even as global prices retreat from recent record highs.
Cocoa prices nearly tripled in 2024, driven by a combination of adverse weather and widespread crop damage linked to swollen shoot disease in both Ivory Coast and Ghana. Although prices fell by about half in 2025 and are expected to ease further this year as a global surplus builds, analysts say long-term supply risks in West Africa remain unresolved.
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Swollen shoot disease is endemic in both Ivory Coast and Ghana, but its spread has accelerated in recent years as authorities struggle to fund large-scale containment programmes. The only effective way to stop transmission is to uproot and burn infected trees before replanting, a costly and disruptive process for smallholder farmers.
Many farmers are reluctant to destroy productive trees without adequate compensation or support during the years it takes for new trees to mature, creating incentives to delay reporting infections and allowing the disease to spread further.
Ghana faces similar challenges. A nationwide survey conducted in 2023 showed 31 percent of Ghana’s total cocoa-growing land was infected with swollen shoot disease, up from 17 percent in 2017, according to official data.
The disease has already had devastating historical consequences. In the 1960s and 1970s, swollen shoot cut Ghana’s cocoa output by around 50 percent, contributing to the country’s loss of its position as the world’s top cocoa producer.
In Ivory Coast, the expansion of cocoa farming into new forest areas over past decades, combined with ageing trees and limited access to disease-resistant planting material, has increased vulnerability to outbreaks, experts say.
Chocolate makers and traders have stepped up sustainability investments in recent years, including programmes to distribute improved seedlings and support farm rehabilitation. However, Enveritas said current efforts remain insufficient relative to the scale of infection.
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Without stronger coordination between governments, donors and the private sector, the group warned that swollen shoot disease could continue to erode cocoa supplies in West Africa over the coming decade, increasing volatility in global markets and threatening farmer livelihoods.
