The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Guinea-Bissau on economic policies to support the Ninth and Tenth Reviews of its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, potentially unlocking a disbursement of US$3.3 million, the Fund said.
The agreement, reached after a mission to Bissau from February 3–13, 2026, is subject to approval by the IMF’s management and Executive Board and contingent on the implementation of prior actions agreed with the transitional government. Upon completion, total disbursements under the program would rise to approximately US$51.6 million.
The ECF-supported program was initially approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 30, 2023, for SDR 28.4 million (about US$37.3 million), with an augmentation to SDR 39.76 million (roughly US$52 million) approved in November 2023. The arrangement has now been extended by five months to December 29, 2026, to anchor economic policies and support the 2026 budget, which is considered critical for maintaining debt sustainability.
“I am pleased to announce that we have reached a staff-level agreement with the Guinea-Bissau authorities on economic and financial policies that could support the approval of the Ninth and Tenth Reviews of the ECF program,” said Niko Hobdari, IMF Mission Chief for Guinea-Bissau.
Economic growth in 2025 is estimated at 5.5 percent, driven by strong cashew production and favorable terms-of-trade developments. Inflation averaged 0.9 percent, reflecting lower food prices, while the fiscal deficit was larger than expected due to weak revenue performance, elevated interest expenditures, and lower-than-anticipated external budget support. Public debt is estimated at 74.3 percent of GDP, with the IMF emphasizing the need for sustained fiscal consolidation and prudent borrowing policies to keep debt on a declining trajectory.
Program implementation faced delays following a military takeover in November 2025, which temporarily disrupted prior actions agreed during the Ninth Review in October. Despite these challenges, the transitional government has taken steps to strengthen fiscal discipline, including tightening expenditure controls and maintaining a zero ceiling on other common expenditures. Additional revenue and spending measures have also been implemented as part of the combined Ninth and Tenth Reviews.
The IMF mission met with transitional Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Té, BCEAO National Director Cassama, senior government officials, public sector representatives, and key bilateral and international partners.
Looking ahead, IMF staff warned that Guinea-Bissau remains exposed to significant risks, including adverse weather, political shocks, negative terms-of-trade movements, and tighter financing conditions. The authorities have committed to curbing non-priority spending and implementing proactive cash-management practices to manage financing pressures, particularly until cashew-related revenues are received.
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“The IMF staff thanks the authorities for their cooperation and constructive policy dialogue,” Hobdari said, noting that the extension of the program through December 2026 is intended to anchor economic policies and support effective budget implementation throughout the year.
Guinea-Bissau’s ECF program, which focuses on fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, and economic stabilization, remains a cornerstone of IMF support for the country’s macroeconomic management and long-term development.
A background to Guinea-Bissau at the IMF
Guinea-Bissau, a small West African country with a population of about 2 million, has faced recurring economic and political challenges over the past decades. Its economy is heavily dependent on cashew exports, which account for roughly 90 percent of export earnings, making the country highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices and adverse weather conditions.
The country has also experienced repeated political instability, including coups and transitional governments, which have disrupted policy implementation and contributed to fiscal and financing pressures. In November 2025, a military takeover temporarily delayed program implementation under the IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Despite this, transitional authorities have expressed a commitment to continue reforms, tighten fiscal discipline, and maintain macroeconomic stability.
Guinea-Bissau joined the IMF’s ECF program in January 2023 to support fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, and structural reforms aimed at strengthening public financial management and improving economic resilience. The program provides financial assistance contingent on the government meeting prior actions and performance benchmarks, which are designed to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support sustainable growth.
Economic performance in recent years has been mixed. In 2025, the IMF estimates the economy grew 5.5 percent, aided by strong cashew production and favorable terms of trade, while inflation remained subdued at 0.9 percent. Public debt is relatively high at 74.3 percent of GDP, prompting the IMF to emphasize prudent borrowing and sustained fiscal consolidation to avoid undermining debt sustainability.
The IMF’s engagement also includes technical support and policy advice to help Guinea-Bissau strengthen institutions, improve revenue mobilization, and implement effective budget management. The latest staff-level agreement for the Ninth and Tenth ECF Reviews reflects ongoing efforts to stabilize the economy, ensure timely budget execution, and maintain investor confidence despite political and regional financial challenges.
This ECF program is part of broader international support for Guinea-Bissau, with multilateral and bilateral partners working alongside the IMF to bolster macroeconomic stability, enhance social safety nets, and promote long-term development in one of Africa’s most fragile economies.
