The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a gradual recovery in Cameroon’s economy, supported by the emergence of large-scale mining exports and improvements in electricity supply, following its 2026 Article IV Consultation mission.
The mission, led by Christine Dieterich and conducted from January 29 to February 12 in Yaoundé, noted that while the economy has remained resilient amid successive external shocks, growth moderated in 2025. Real GDP growth slowed to 3.1 percent in 2025 from 3.5 percentin 2024, partly due to post-election disruptions affecting trade, services and investment.
The IMF expects growth to rebound to 3.3 percent in 2026 and exceed 4% from 2028 as electricity bottlenecks ease and mining output expands. Over the medium term, growth could reach 4.6% by 2031, driven largely by diversification into mining.
A key driver is the launch of bauxite exports from the Minim-Martap project in the Adamawa Region. The project is operated by Canyon Resources through its subsidiary Camalco Cameroon and holds confirmed reserves of 144 million tonnes at a grade of 51.2 percent aluminium oxide. Canyon has secured US$140 million in credit from AFG Bank Cameroon and raised approximately A$205 million in equity financing to fund initial development.
Mining began in early 2026, with a first trial shipment expected in the third quarter. The project relies on rail transport to the Port of Douala, where operator CAMRAIL is upgrading infrastructure. Canyon has also ordered 22 locomotives from CRRC Ziyang, with deliveries scheduled through 2026, and is negotiating to increase its stake in CAMRAIL from 9 percent to about 35 percent. A feasibility study for a proposed alumina refinery is about 45% complete, with an investment decision targeted for the third quarter of 2026.
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In parallel, the Mbalam iron ore project in southern Cameroon is preparing for initial production, with ore to be transported by truck to the Port of Kribi until dedicated rail infrastructure is completed.
Energy reforms are another pillar of the recovery outlook. The 420-megawatt Nachtigal hydroelectric plant, developed with support from the World Bank Group, the International Finance Corporation and the African Development Bank, has boosted national generation capacity by roughly 30%. As of January 2025, six of its seven turbines were operational.
State-controlled ENEO Cameroon has also reinforced generation and transmission capacity, while new solar photovoltaic projects targeting 250 megawatts are under development, including expansions in Maroua and Guider. Cameroon has joined the Mission 300 initiative of the World Bank Group and the African Development Bank Group to expand electricity access across Africa.
Despite the positive outlook, fiscal performance weakened in 2025. The overall deficit widened to around 2% of GDP from 1.5 percent in 2024, while the non-oil primary balance deteriorated to 2.6% of GDP. The current account deficit rose to an estimated 3.9% of GDP, reflecting lower oil exports. Cameroon remains at high risk of debt distress under IMF debt sustainability analysis.
The IMF urged reforms to strengthen public investment management, expand concessional financing, improve domestic revenue mobilisation, and operationalise a Single Treasury Account. It also highlighted risks including delays in mining infrastructure, commodity price volatility, electricity transmission constraints, and regional liquidity pressures within CEMAC.
Overall, the Fund said sustained reform implementation will be crucial to translating new mining and energy capacity into durable and inclusive growth.
