South Africa’s maize production is expected to decline slightly in the 2025/2026 agricultural season, according to preliminary government estimates, raising fresh concerns about food supply dynamics and livestock feed costs in the region.
The country’s Crop Estimates Committee said on Thursday that farmers are projected to harvest 16.13 million metric tons of maize, representing a 3 percent decrease compared with the 16.65 million metric tons produced in the previous season.
Maize is South Africa’s most important staple crop and plays a central role in regional food security, serving both domestic consumption and export markets across southern Africa.
According to the committee’s first summer crop forecast for 2026, the harvest will comprise approximately 8.51 million metric tons of white maize, primarily used for human consumption, and 7.62 million metric tons of yellow maize, which is mainly utilised in animal feed production.
White maize forms the basis of staple foods consumed widely across South Africa and neighbouring countries, while yellow maize remains critical for poultry, livestock and dairy industries. Any fluctuations in output therefore have implications for both food prices and agricultural production costs.
Despite the projected decline, analysts note that the expected harvest remains broadly within historical averages and should be sufficient to meet domestic demand under normal market conditions.
Weather variability and planting conditions are believed to have contributed to the anticipated reduction in output. Agricultural production in South Africa remains highly dependent on rainfall patterns, making yields vulnerable to shifting climate conditions, including delayed rains or dry spells during key planting and growing periods.
The forecast comes at a time when global grain markets continue to experience volatility driven by climate disruptions, geopolitical tensions and changing trade flows. As one of Africa’s largest maize producers and exporters, South Africa plays a stabilising role in regional grain supply, particularly for countries in the Southern African Development Community that depend on imports during poor harvest seasons.
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A smaller maize crop could place upward pressure on feed prices, potentially increasing production costs for meat, poultry and dairy producers. This, in turn, may influence consumer food inflation if higher costs are passed along supply chains.
However, market participants say current stock levels and carryover supplies from previous seasons could help cushion immediate price shocks, depending on weather developments later in the growing season.
South Africa’s agricultural sector has demonstrated resilience in recent years, supported by improved farming technology, commercial-scale production and export competitiveness. Still, farmers continue to face rising input costs, including fertiliser, fuel and logistics expenses, which have weighed on profitability.
The Crop Estimates Committee is expected to revise its projections in subsequent reports as more accurate data becomes available during the harvesting period.
Agricultural economists say close monitoring of rainfall patterns and crop conditions in the coming months will be crucial in determining whether production outcomes align with initial forecasts or shift significantly before harvest completion.
While the projected decline is relatively modest, the outlook underscores the continued sensitivity of food systems to climate variability and production risks in one of Africa’s key grain-producing economies.
