The OPEC+ alliance agreed on Sunday to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day from April, as major producers attempt to stabilise global energy markets amid escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
The decision followed a meeting of eight core members of the producer group, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman, which have led most supply adjustments in recent years.
In a statement, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, collectively known as OPEC+, said the planned increase represents less than 0.2 percent of global oil supply, signalling a cautious approach as geopolitical tensions threaten crude flows from the Middle East.
The move comes as military confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other raises concerns over disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil shipping corridor.
Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined fuels transit the narrow waterway each day, linking Gulf producers to global markets. Any interruption to shipments through the strait typically triggers sharp increases in oil prices and maritime insurance costs.
More Read
Brent crude prices rose about 3.66 percent to trade near US$73 per barrel on Saturday as markets reacted to heightened regional risks and uncertainty surrounding supply routes.
Analysts say the modest production increase reflects OPEC+ efforts to balance competing pressures — preventing excessive price spikes that could damage global economic growth while avoiding oversupply during a period of uncertain demand.
“The group is trying to reassure markets that additional barrels are available without flooding supply,” said an oil market analyst familiar with the discussions.
Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates maintain pipeline infrastructure capable of bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, industry experts note that alternative routes cannot fully replace the volumes normally shipped through the corridor.
The latest decision follows earlier agreements by OPEC+ to gradually restore production cuts introduced during previous market downturns. The alliance had planned to raise output quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025 equivalent to roughly 3 percent of global demand before pausing increases between January and March 2026 due to seasonal demand weakness.
Sources familiar with Sunday’s meeting told Reuters that member states debated potential output increases ranging from 137,000 barrels per day to as much as 548,000 barrels per day before settling on the smaller adjustment.
The restrained increase underscores uncertainty facing producers as markets respond to one of the most serious geopolitical crises affecting energy supply in recent years.
Oil traders remain focused on whether military activity could escalate further and disrupt physical shipments from key exporters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran.
A prolonged disruption in the Gulf could tighten global supply significantly and push prices higher, potentially reviving inflationary pressures worldwide.
More Read
For now, OPEC+ appears to be signalling readiness to intervene gradually while monitoring developments closely, maintaining flexibility to adjust production policy should market conditions deteriorate.
Energy analysts say the alliance’s next moves will depend largely on the evolution of the conflict and its impact on global oil flows in the weeks ahead.
