South Sudan is facing the ominous prospect of renewed widespread conflict, with the United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan warning that political and military leaders are systematically dismantling the 2018 peace agreement and undermining the country’s fragile stability. In its latest investigative report presented to the UN Human Rights Council, the commission said actions by government forces and allied militias have placed civilians at grave risk of mass violence, human rights violations, and atrocities that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan was designed to end years of civil war that erupted in 2013, two years after the country gained independence. The pact provided a framework for power sharing, security arrangements, transitional governance, justice mechanisms and economic reforms intended to heal deep political and ethnic divisions. However, the commission’s report says the peace deal’s governance and security safeguards are rapidly eroding, leaving the country exposed to renewed armed conflict.
Yasmin Sooka, Chair of the United Nations Commission, highlighted a concerning reversal of earlier assurances. In March 2025, President Salva Kiir Mayardit publicly declared that South Sudan would not return to war. But according to the commission’s findings, events on the ground have contradicted that pledge, as violence has surged and the government has pursued military operations that disregard civilian safety and international humanitarian law.
The report documents widespread and systematic attacks by forces under the command of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement‑In Government (SPLM‑IG) against civilian populations. These abuses include unlawful killings and indiscriminate or disproportionate aerial bombardments of homes, medical facilities and civilian infrastructure. Such attacks violate fundamental principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution, which are central to international humanitarian law governing conduct during armed conflict.
In addition to indiscriminate violence, the commission reported conflict‑related sexual violence, the abduction of children, and the forcible recruitment of boys into armed forces. These practices are consistent with some of the gravest violations of international law and have devastating long‑term impacts on families and communities already weakened by years of instability.
The UN report also found that attacks against civilian groups have been patterned according to ethnicity and perceived political affiliation, further deepening longstanding fissures within South Sudanese society. Targeted violence has contributed to widespread fear, displacement and a breakdown of community cohesion, the commission said.
In March 2025, authorities aligned with the ruling party arrested members of the opposition, including prominent figures such as First Vice President Riek Machar and eight other political leaders. They have been charged with serious offences in proceedings that rights observers describe as highly politicised. These detentions, combined with ongoing repression of civic space, contribute to an environment where credible national elections are unlikely to be feasible.
The government has signalled plans to hold the first national election in December 2026, but the commission criticised the political climate as unconducive to democratic processes. “Credible electoral processes are unrealistic in a context where civic space is repressed, conflict rages, more than three million people are internally displaced, and key opposition leaders are arbitrarily detained during a politicised trial,” Sooka said in her address to the Human Rights Council.
More than three million South Sudanese have been displaced inside their own country, driven from their homes by violence and fear. Many have fled to neighbouring countries as refugees, contributing to one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the region, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Displacement has compounded existing challenges related to food insecurity, healthcare access, education disruption and economic hardship.
South Sudan, the world’s newest nation after achieving independence from Sudan in 2011, plunged into conflict in 2013 after political tensions between President Kiir and Vice President Machar escalated into violence. A cycle of retaliatory attacks and shifting alliances spread conflict across much of the country, resulting in massive loss of life and widespread destruction. Multiple ceasefires and peace processes have been attempted since then, but progress has remained fragile and often short‑lived.
The UN Commission’s report underscores deep concerns about the breakdown of peace institutions and the erosion of mechanisms intended to protect civilians and ensure accountability. Without urgent measures to reinvigorate the peace agreement, strengthen governance, and hold perpetrators of abuses to account, the international body warned that South Sudan risks sliding back into full‑scale war.
Government representatives have not publicly responded to the commission’s latest findings, and the Machar‑led opposition has similarly not issued an immediate comment on the report. As conflict dynamics continue to evolve, diplomats, humanitarian organisations and regional bodies such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) will likely face mounting pressure to intensify diplomatic efforts to prevent a broader collapse of peace and avert further suffering among South Sudan’s civilian population.
