Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery has raised its ex-depot price of petrol to 1,275 naira per litre, marking the fifth increase this month and underscoring mounting volatility in the country’s deregulated fuel market.
The latest adjustment, announced early Saturday, represents a 100-naira increase from the 1,175 naira per litre sold earlier in March and a 30-naira jump from the 1,245 naira price communicated just hours before.
The refinery said previous pricing templates should be disregarded, noting that the revised rates take immediate effect for all pending and new transactions.
“Kindly note that the prices contained in our previous correspondence are no longer applicable,” the company said in a notice to marketers and customers.
The new pricing also affects coastal sales, with rates rising from 1.51 million naira to 1.65 million naira per metric tonne an increase of about 8.9 percent.
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The rapid succession of price hikes highlights the intensity of pricing pressures facing Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, despite expectations that the refinery would help stabilise domestic fuel supply.
Data compiled from industry sources show that the refinery’s gantry price has surged from 774 naira per litre at the beginning of March to 1,275 naira, a cumulative increase of about 65 percent in less than three weeks.
Analysts attribute the sharp upward trend to global crude oil price fluctuations, foreign exchange pressures, and disruptions in international fuel supply chains.
The refinery said the adjustments reflect “prevailing market realities,” pointing to external factors beyond its control.
The increases are likely to ripple across the economy, with marketers expected to adjust pump prices nationwide, potentially driving up transport costs and inflation.
The development comes as demand for refined products from the facility rises across Africa. Several countries, including Ghana, South Africa, and Kenya, have reportedly expressed interest in sourcing fuel from the refinery amid supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions affecting traditional export routes.
With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is expected to play a key role in reshaping fuel supply dynamics in Africa. However, the latest price movements suggest that domestic markets remain exposed to global oil market volatility.
Customers operating under existing credit arrangements will continue to receive supply, provided they can cover the price differences under revised terms.
As Africa’s largest economy navigates a fully deregulated fuel regime, the pace of price adjustments is likely to remain closely tied to global market conditions, raising concerns about affordability and economic stability.
Background to Dangote Refinery fuel supply
Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream petroleum sector following the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023, a policy shift aimed at reducing fiscal pressure and attracting private investment. While the reform has eased government spending, it has also exposed domestic fuel prices to global oil market fluctuations and exchange rate volatility.
For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on fuel imports despite being a major crude oil producer, due to limited and underperforming state-owned refineries. This dependence made the country vulnerable to supply disruptions and high subsidy costs, which at times consumed a significant share of government revenue.
The entry of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery Africa’s largest refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day was widely expected to transform the sector by reducing import dependence, improving supply security, and stabilising prices.
However, since operations began, domestic fuel pricing has remained closely linked to international crude oil prices, freight costs, and foreign exchange dynamics. Industry analysts note that even with local refining, inputs such as crude oil are priced in dollars, meaning exchange rate movements continue to influence pump prices.
Recent global developments have added further pressure. Supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, including conflict affecting key oil-producing regions, have tightened global fuel availability and increased costs.
Within this context, the multiple price adjustments by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reflect a broader trend of volatility in deregulated markets, where prices can change rapidly in response to shifting market conditions.
The increases are significant because they directly affect transport costs, food prices, and overall inflation in Nigeria, where millions of households and businesses rely on petrol for daily activities due to limited and unreliable electricity supply.
At the same time, the refinery is emerging as a key regional supplier, with growing interest from countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Kenya, as African governments seek alternative fuel sources amid global supply uncertainties.
While deregulation is intended to create a more efficient and competitive market, the transition has been marked by price instability, raising concerns about affordability and the broader economic impact.
