Nigeria has said it could increase crude oil production by about 100,000 barrels per day in the coming months, positioning itself to respond to potential global supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The announcement was made by Bashir Bayo Ojulari, head of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, during remarks at an energy conference in Houston.
Ojulari said Nigeria had the capacity to ramp up production relatively quickly if needed, particularly in the event of supply shortfalls caused by instability involving Iran, the United States and Israel.
“We can increase our production,” he said, noting that Nigeria could add around 100,000 barrels per day, although he did not provide a specific timeline for when the increase would materialise.
The comments come as global oil markets remain on edge over disruptions to shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery that carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s crude oil flows.
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Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has been working to stabilise and gradually increase its output after years of volatility driven by pipeline vandalism, oil theft, underinvestment and operational challenges.
Official data indicates that the country produced between 1.6 million and 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025, while output stood at about 1.46 million barrels per day in February 2026, according to the latest figures from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
This represents a decline of roughly 28,000 barrels per day from January, highlighting ongoing fluctuations despite efforts to improve production efficiency.
Nigeria is targeting output of around 1.8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, a goal that will require sustained investment and operational improvements across the sector.
However, the country’s production ambitions remain constrained by its quota under OPEC agreements. The group has maintained Nigeria’s output limit at 1.5 million barrels per day since December 2024, restricting how much the country can officially produce despite its installed capacity.
Analysts say any significant increase beyond the quota would likely depend on broader OPEC decisions or exceptional market conditions, such as a major supply disruption.
To address structural challenges, NNPC Ltd has launched a review of its asset portfolio, aimed at optimising project timelines, reducing costs and enhancing operational performance.
The company says these reforms are part of a broader strategy to strengthen Nigeria’s production capacity and improve efficiency across upstream operations.
There are also signs of improving financial performance. According to local reports, NNPC Ltd posted a profit of 385 billion naira (about $280 million) in 2025, supported by higher output levels and cost management efforts.
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Industry experts caution, however, that sustaining production growth will require continued investment in infrastructure, security and regulatory reforms.
While Nigeria’s ability to add incremental supply could provide some relief to global markets in the event of disruptions, its overall impact would likely be limited given the scale of potential shocks.
Nonetheless, the country’s readiness to boost output underscores its strategic importance in global energy markets, particularly at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
