Morocco’s economic outlook for 2026 is subject to differing projections from the International Monetary Fund and the country’s central bank, highlighting uncertainty over the pace of recovery amid global risks.
The IMF said Morocco’s real GDP growth is expected to reach 4.4 percent in 2026, according to a statement released on March 23 following its Article IV consultation and mid-term review of the country’s flexible credit line arrangement.
The واشингтон-based lender said the forecast is underpinned by a recovery in economic activity, supported by improved agricultural output and sustained public investment. “Increased public investment offers opportunities for stronger growth and job creation, provided risks are well managed and human capital is strengthened,” the IMF said.
Inflation, currently subdued, is expected to rise temporarily due to higher energy prices before stabilising at around 2 percent over the medium term, the Fund added.
The IMF also highlighted the importance of maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and advancing structural reforms, noting that fiscal consolidation and stronger domestic revenue mobilisation could create room for increased social spending and priority investments.
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However, it warned that short-term growth prospects remain vulnerable to external shocks, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt global commodity markets and weaken external demand.
In contrast, Bank Al-Maghrib has taken a more optimistic stance, projecting economic growth of 5.6% in 2026 following its policy meeting on March 17 in Rabat.
The central bank expects stronger expansion to be driven by increased public investment and the continuation of structural reforms aimed at improving competitiveness and attracting private sector participation.
Morocco’s draft 2026 finance law outlines higher capital expenditure, particularly in transport infrastructure, logistics modernisation, agriculture, and public services. Authorities say these investments are designed to stimulate economic activity, create jobs, and crowd in private capital.
Beyond 2026, the IMF projects growth of 4.5 percent in 2027 and around 4% over the medium term, assuming a normalisation in agricultural production and stronger private sector involvement in infrastructure projects. This compares with the central bank’s more conservative projection of 3.5 percent growth for 2027.
Analysts say the divergence in forecasts reflects differing assumptions about external risks and the speed at which domestic reforms and investment programmes will translate into economic gains.
Morocco’s economy remains sensitive to agricultural performance, which is influenced by rainfall patterns, as well as to global economic conditions given its trade links with Europe and exposure to energy prices.
Despite the differing outlooks, both institutions agree that sustained public investment and structural reforms will be key to supporting long-term growth. They also underline the importance of strengthening human capital and improving productivity to ensure inclusive and resilient economic expansion.
As Morocco navigates a complex global environment, policymakers face the challenge of balancing fiscal discipline with growth-enhancing investments, while mitigating risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and external market volatility.
