Africa posted the fastest air cargo growth in the world for a fifth straight month in February, driven by booming trade with Asia and a scramble by shippers to reroute freight away from the Gulf as conflict in the Middle East disrupts major logistics corridors.
Air freight demand across African carriers rose 21.0 percent year-on-year in February, almost double the global average of 11.2 percent, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The figures underscore how Africa’s aviation sector is emerging as an unexpected beneficiary of global supply chain disruptions, even as soaring fuel costs threaten to wipe out weaker airlines and expose the continent’s infrastructure gaps.
The strongest growth came on the Africa-Asia corridor, where freight volumes surged 61.9 percent from a year earlier, extending an eight-month run of expansion and far outpacing every other major route tracked by IATA.
The jump reflects both structural and geopolitical shifts.
In January, Kenya and China signed a preferential trade agreement granting duty-free access to more than 98 percent of Kenyan products entering the Chinese market, a move expected to boost exports of flowers, avocados, pharmaceuticals and other high-value goods that rely heavily on air freight.
China has also announced tariff reductions covering most African countries from May, potentially adding further momentum to trade flows.
At the same time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Gulf airspace following the outbreak of war involving Iran at the end of February have upended some of the world’s busiest cargo routes.
Major Gulf carriers including Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo and Etihad have either suspended or sharply reduced operations, forcing freight forwarders and exporters to seek alternative transit hubs.
That has created an opening for African carriers, especially Ethiopian Airlines, which has seen a sharp rise in bookings as Addis Ababa becomes an increasingly important stop for diverted cargo.
Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s largest carrier by cargo volume and network, said last week it would continue investing in its freight operations to strengthen its position in the global market.
On March 24, the airline and aircraft lessor AerCap announced lease agreements for two converted Boeing 777 freighters, the first of their kind to operate on the continent, although deliveries are only expected in 2028.
The latest IATA figures also show African cargo capacity rose 17.3 percent in February, while the average cargo load factor increased to 43.8 percent.
That remains below the global average of 46.0 percent, suggesting there is still room for volume growth without immediate pressure on rates.
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But the picture is far from uniformly positive.
The same conflict-driven disruption that is boosting cargo demand is also fuelling a surge in jet fuel costs, creating acute pressure for airlines already operating on thin margins.
Fuel accounts for between 30 and 40 percent of operating costs for African airlines, compared with a global average closer to 20 to 25 percent, according to industry estimates.
Jet fuel prices in Africa have climbed to around $171 per barrel, more than double January levels, as supply chains through the Gulf tighten and insurance and transport costs rise.
Some countries are already facing shortages.
South Africa has only a few weeks of jet fuel stocks left, according to industry representatives, while Zambia was reported to have around 10 days of supply by mid-March.
Smaller regional carriers such as ASKY, fastjet, Air Côte d’Ivoire and Precision Air are particularly exposed, lacking the balance sheet strength, hedging capacity and procurement leverage of larger rivals like Ethiopian Airlines or Kenya Airways.
Some have already reduced frequencies or suspended routes.
Analysts say the current crisis could accelerate a long-debated shift in African aviation policy, particularly efforts to liberalise air cargo under the African Union’s Single African Air Transport Market.
Supporters argue that easing restrictions on freight rights between African states would allow hubs such as Addis Ababa, Nairobi and Casablanca to scale up more efficiently and better absorb trade flows displaced from the Gulf.
Still, infrastructure remains a major constraint.
African cargo terminals, sorting facilities and ground handling systems remain small compared with Gulf mega-hubs such as Dubai and Doha, limiting the continent’s ability to fully capture the traffic now being rerouted.
For now, however, the numbers suggest Africa’s air cargo sector is enjoying a rare moment of momentum — one born not only of trade opportunity, but also of a global logistics system under strain.
