Global oil prices jumped sharply on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of further military action against Iran, reigniting fears of a prolonged conflict and deepening concerns over disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery rose about 13 percent to $113.08 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed 8 percent to $109.29 a barrel, as markets reacted to Trump’s latest remarks and fading hopes of a near-term de-escalation.
The surge followed a national address in which Trump said the United States would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks, while also insisting the war would not last long and that discussions with Tehran were still ongoing. The mixed signals rattled markets already on edge over the possibility of further escalation in one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors.
Trump blamed the rise in oil prices on what he described as Iranian attacks on commercial tankers and neighbouring states, saying Washington was prepared to intensify pressure on Tehran. “We are going to finish the job, and we’re going to finish it very fast,” he said, according to CNBC.
The remarks quickly reversed a brief bout of optimism that had emerged earlier in the week, when Trump suggested the conflict could wind down soon. On Tuesday, oil had eased after he indicated U.S. military operations might end within weeks. But Thursday’s renewed threat pushed traders back into risk-off mode, with energy markets once again pricing in the possibility of prolonged supply disruption.
At the heart of the concern is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow but vital waterway that normally carries around one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. Tanker traffic through the passage has been severely disrupted since the war between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran erupted on February 28, sending shockwaves through energy markets and contributing to one of the sharpest commodity price surges in recent years.
Analysts say there is little sign of a quick return to normal shipping activity. Giles Alston, a political risk analyst at Oxford Analytica, said tanker movement through Hormuz was unlikely to resume any time soon, arguing that the burden of navigating the route now increasingly falls on commercial operators rather than governments.
The latest spike in oil prices is likely to intensify inflationary pressure globally, especially in fuel-importing countries already grappling with higher transport and energy costs. For African economies, the renewed surge adds to mounting concerns over imported inflation, fiscal strain and pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
Although major oil exporters may benefit from stronger crude prices in the short term, the broader effect of prolonged instability in the Gulf is expected to be negative for many developing economies, particularly those dependent on imported petroleum products and maritime trade.
The market reaction also reflects confusion over whether diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran remain active. Trump said Iran had sought a ceasefire, a claim later denied by Tehran. Iranian officials insisted the Strait of Hormuz would not be reopened on U.S. terms and said the strategic route remained under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.
The back-and-forth has heightened uncertainty and left investors struggling to gauge whether the conflict is nearing containment or entering a more dangerous phase.
