Europe’s aviation industry is facing a looming crisis, with airport authorities warning that jet fuel shortages could begin within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.
According to Airports Council International Europe, the continent relies heavily on fuel imports from the Persian Gulf, which account for roughly half of Europe’s jet fuel supply. The ongoing tensions affecting the waterway have significantly reduced shipments, raising fears of a supply crunch just as the peak summer travel season approaches.
The warning was issued by ACI Europe’s director general Olivier Jankovec, who stated in a letter to European authorities that “if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”
This is not just a supply issue. It is a potential economic shock.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, carrying about a fifth of global oil and a significant share of refined petroleum products, including aviation fuel. When flows are disrupted, the effects ripple quickly across global markets, pushing up prices and tightening supply chains.
That impact is already visible. European jet fuel prices have surged to record levels, more than doubling compared to pre conflict levels. Airlines have begun adjusting operations, with some cutting routes and others passing higher costs onto passengers through increased fares and surcharges.
Smaller airports are expected to be hit first.
Facilities handling fewer than one million passengers annually often lack the storage capacity and financial flexibility to absorb prolonged supply disruptions. ACI Europe has warned that these airports are particularly vulnerable, with potential knock on effects for regional connectivity and local economies.
And this is where the situation gets serious.
Air transport is not just about travel. It is a major economic engine. The aviation sector contributes hundreds of billions of euros to Europe’s economy and supports millions of jobs. A disruption of this scale could affect tourism, trade, logistics and even emergency services that depend on reliable air connectivity.
The industry is now pushing for urgent intervention from the European Union. ACI Europe has called for coordinated action, including collective fuel purchasing and temporary easing of import regulations to stabilise supply. It also criticised the lack of a unified EU wide monitoring system for jet fuel availability, arguing that relying on market forces alone “is not an option.”
At the same time, the crisis is exposing deeper structural vulnerabilities.
Europe’s dependence on external fuel sources leaves it exposed to geopolitical shocks, particularly in regions like the Middle East where tensions can escalate quickly. The current situation has renewed calls to accelerate investment in sustainable aviation fuel and alternative energy sources, though these solutions remain years away from replacing conventional jet fuel at scale.
There is also a strategic dimension.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, global competition for fuel supplies will intensify. Regions with stronger purchasing power or closer supply chains could secure priority access, leaving others scrambling. For Europe, this could mean higher costs and reduced bargaining power in already strained energy markets.
The uncertainty is still high.
While a temporary ceasefire has eased immediate fears, shipping activity through the strait remains limited, and confidence among operators has not fully returned. Without a stable and sustained reopening, supply chains will remain fragile.
What makes this moment critical is timing.
Europe is heading into its busiest travel season, when demand for flights surges and fuel consumption peaks. Any disruption now will have amplified effects, potentially leading to flight cancellations, higher ticket prices and reduced travel options across the continent.
The warning from the aviation sector is clear and direct.
If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, Europe will not just face higher fuel prices. It will face a structural supply crisis that could disrupt one of its most important industries.
And the bigger question remains: in a world where key energy routes can be disrupted overnight, how long can global aviation rely on such fragile supply chains?
Hormuz Strait closure strands 3,000 vessels, 20,000 seafarers-IMO
