Intra-African trade is expected to grow by 10 percent in 2026 to reach US$230 billion dollars, up from 210 billion dollars in 2025, as implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area accelerates across the continent, according to a new report.
The forecast, published by the African Export-Import Bank in its “African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026”, presents an optimistic scenario anchored on improving political stability, stronger regional integration and targeted reforms aimed at boosting competitiveness.
The Cairo-based lender said the outlook also assumes a more supportive global environment, including easing geopolitical tensions, partial normalisation of supply chains and renewed confidence in the multilateral trading system.
These conditions, it noted, would allow African economies to convert ongoing structural reforms into sustained gains in trade and income.
A key driver of the projected expansion is progress made in 2025, notably the rollout of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, which is designed to facilitate cross-border payments in local currencies.
The system is expected to reduce foreign exchange costs by between 20 and 30 percent, lowering transaction barriers for businesses engaged in intra-regional trade.
Additional support is coming from the gradual removal of non-tariff barriers along major trade corridors, as well as the adoption of AfCFTA protocols on digital trade, which aim to streamline e-commerce and cross-border data flows.
As a result, intra-African trade is projected to account for 16 percent of the continent’s total trade in 2026, compared with an average of about 15 percent in recent years.
The report also points to a gradual shift in the composition of trade, with manufacturing and agri-food sectors expected to increase their share to between 48 and 50 percent of intra-African trade flows, up from 46 percent in 2025.
This shift reflects efforts by African countries to diversify away from primary commodities, which have historically dominated exports and exposed economies to price volatility.
Regionally, Southern Africa is expected to remain the main driver of intra-African trade, supported by relatively more developed industrial capacity and established trade networks.
However, faster implementation of AfCFTA is likely to broaden participation from West and East Africa, while North Africa continues to strengthen commercial ties with other sub-regions.
Despite the improving outlook, the report highlights persistent structural imbalances in Africa’s trade profile.
Total trade, both within and outside the continent, stood at around 1.4 trillion dollars last year. Exports to global markets remain heavily concentrated in commodities, which account for between 60 and 70 percent of the total, while imports are dominated by manufactured goods, representing more than 60 percent.
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Africa’s share of global exports remains modest at around 3 percent, indicating limited integration into global value chains and a reliance on cyclical price movements rather than structural competitiveness.
The report notes significant variations across sub-regions. North Africa has relatively more diversified exports and higher value-added products, while West and Central Africa remain heavily dependent on crude oil, mining and unprocessed agricultural goods.
East Africa, although recording lower export values overall, shows greater diversification, driven by a mix of agricultural products and a growing light manufacturing base.
These disparities, however, also point to considerable untapped potential. The report estimates that African exports are about 433.8 billion dollars below their potential, suggesting substantial room for expansion.
In particular, scaling up agricultural processing could increase export earnings by 42.3 percent, while advancing mineral beneficiation could boost GDP growth by 4.3 percentage points, create about 412,000 jobs and generate up to 120 billion dollars in annual export revenues at more advanced stages of production.
To unlock these gains, the report underscores the need for deeper regional integration, improved governance frameworks and sustained investment in infrastructure, including transport, energy and digital systems.
It adds that the success of AfCFTA will depend not only on policy commitments but also on effective implementation at national and regional levels, as African economies seek to move up the value chain and strengthen resilience in an evolving global trade landscape.
