A looming global shortage of fertilizers, driven by war-related disruptions and export restrictions, is raising fresh concerns about food inflation and supply risks, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned.
In an appeal issued this week, the UN agency urged governments to avoid curbing exports of fertilizers and energy, cautioning that such measures could worsen already tight markets and trigger a broader food crisis.
The warning comes as conflict-linked disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten a key artery for global trade. Nearly one-third of maritime fertilizer shipments pass through the narrow waterway, according to UN data, making it critical to global supply chains.
“We are in an input crisis,” said David Laborde, a senior FAO official, pointing to rising pressure on agricultural production systems.
Energy prices, closely tied to fertilizer production costs, have surged amid the conflict, while supplies of nitrogen- and phosphate-based fertilizers are under strain.
FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero warned that policy missteps could amplify the shock.
“The clock is ticking,” he said, stressing that maintaining fertilizer flows is essential to prevent falling crop yields and rising food prices. “The last thing we want is lower yields, higher food commodity prices, and another wave of food inflation next year.”
Fertilizers are a cornerstone of modern agriculture, and any sustained disruption can quickly ripple through global food systems. If supplies tighten further or prices remain elevated, farmers may cut usage, leading to reduced harvests.
The FAO cautioned that the current situation could become more severe than the 2022 global food crisis, particularly if compounded by adverse weather conditions.
One key risk is the potential return of El Niño, a weather phenomenon that can bring hotter and drier conditions to many agricultural regions. Such a development later this year could further strain crop production and push food prices higher.
To mitigate the risks, the FAO is calling for coordinated international action, including financial support from multilateral institutions to help vulnerable countries secure fertilizer supplies during critical planting periods.
The agency said it has already mapped fertilizer requirements based on crop calendars and regional demand, highlighting areas most at risk of shortages.
However, geopolitical realities may complicate efforts to stabilise markets.
Major fertilizer-producing countries have already taken steps to safeguard domestic supply. Russia, a key global supplier, recently suspended exports of ammonium nitrate for a month to prioritise local farmers during the spring planting season.
China has also tightened restrictions on urea exports, extending measures first introduced in 2025 through at least August 2026.
These moves underscore a growing tension between national food security priorities and the stability of global markets.
Analysts say such export controls, while understandable from a domestic perspective, can exacerbate shortages elsewhere, driving up prices and increasing volatility.
The stakes are particularly high for import-dependent countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, where farmers are already grappling with high input costs and limited access to financing.
For these regions, reduced fertilizer use could translate directly into lower yields, threatening food availability and affordability.
The FAO’s warning highlights the fragile balance in global food systems, where disruptions in energy, trade and geopolitics can quickly converge.
As the northern hemisphere planting season advances, the coming months will be critical in determining whether markets stabilise or tip into another period of heightened food inflation.
Without coordinated action, officials warn, the world could face renewed pressure on food prices—just as many economies are still recovering from previous shocks.
