Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2026, placing Africa’s largest economy among the better-performing emerging markets even as global growth weakens, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The projection was published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, titled “Global Economy in the Shadow of War”, released during the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington.
The Fund said Nigeria’s growth would edge up further to 4.3 percent in 2027, compared with an estimated 4.0 percent in 2025, signalling a steady but moderate expansion over the medium term.
The outlook positions Nigeria ahead of many advanced economies, which are expected to see significantly slower growth amid geopolitical tensions, tighter financial conditions and lingering trade barriers.
Global economic growth is forecast to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 before a slight rebound to 3.2 percent in 2027, according to the IMF. Inflation is also expected to rise modestly next year, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures linked to conflict and disrupted trade routes.
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The IMF attributed the weaker global outlook mainly to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which has added uncertainty to energy markets and international shipping flows.
“After withstanding higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year, global activity now faces a major test from the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” the Fund said.
It added that while the conflict is assumed to remain limited in duration and scope, its spillover effects are already weighing on investment and trade confidence worldwide.
Among major economies, India is projected to remain the fastest-growing large economy with expansion of 6.5 percent in 2026, followed by China at 4.4 percent.
In contrast, advanced economies are expected to grow at a much slower pace. The United States is forecast to expand by 2.3 percent, while Germany is projected to grow by just 0.8 percent. France and Italy are expected to post growth of 0.9 percent and 0.5 percent respectively, reflecting ongoing structural and energy-related challenges in Europe.
The IMF noted that emerging and developing economies will continue to drive global growth, although they are also likely to face heightened pressure from inflation, capital flow volatility and external shocks.
For Nigeria, the forecast signals resilience despite domestic challenges, with analysts often pointing to services, agriculture and a gradual recovery in oil production as key contributors to growth.
However, the IMF cautioned that global uncertainty remains elevated, meaning outlooks could shift depending on geopolitical developments and commodity price volatility.
The latest projections come as policymakers worldwide grapple with balancing inflation control, economic growth and energy security in an increasingly fragmented global economy.
