Nigerian airlines have warned of possible flight suspensions as a sharp surge in jet fuel prices pushes operating costs to unsustainable levels, raising the risk of widespread disruption in the country’s domestic aviation sector.
The Airline Operators of Nigeria said carriers are struggling to cope with a dramatic increase in the price of aviation fuel, also known as Jet A1, which has risen by nearly 300 percent in recent months.
Kerosene prices have climbed from around 900 naira ($0.67) per litre to about 3,300 naira, far outpacing global trends. The association described the increase as excessive, noting that international jet fuel prices have risen by roughly 30 percent over the same period.
Airlines say the spike threatens their ability to maintain operations, with some warning that services could be suspended if conditions do not improve.
The price surge comes amid heightened tensions in global energy markets linked to the conflict involving Iran, a key player in global oil supply. The situation has raised concerns about potential disruptions to shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for petroleum exports.
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Nearly 70 percent of Africa’s kerosene supply transits through the strait, making the continent particularly vulnerable to supply shocks. According to market data from S&P Global Platts, jet fuel prices in Africa have climbed to around $171 per barrel, intensifying cost pressures on airlines.
Industry experts warn that supply constraints could begin to affect airport operations across the continent if the crisis persists.
Fuel stock levels already vary widely between countries. As of March, Zambia held roughly 10 days of reserves, while South Africa maintained between three and four weeks of supply. Kenya had about 50 days of stock, offering a relatively stronger buffer against disruptions.
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The current situation is exacerbating longstanding structural challenges in African aviation, where fuel costs are significantly higher than global averages.
According to the African Airlines Association, jet fuel prices in Africa are typically at least 17 percent above the global average. Fuel accounts for between 30 percent and 40 percent of operating costs for African carriers, compared with 20 percent to 25 percent globally.
This cost imbalance has long undermined the competitiveness of African airlines, leaving them particularly exposed to external shocks.
While Nigerian carriers are raising the prospect of suspending flights, airlines in other markets have opted to pass rising fuel costs on to passengers.
In South Africa, flag carrier South African Airways and low-cost airline FlySafair introduced temporary fuel surcharges in March to offset higher costs.
In Nigeria, however, operators say there is limited room to raise fares further without dampening demand in a price-sensitive market.
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A suspension of flights would have significant implications for mobility in Africa’s most populous country, where alternative transport infrastructure remains underdeveloped.
Air travel has become an increasingly vital mode of domestic transport, helping to bridge long distances in a country plagued by road congestion and limited rail connectivity. Data from the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria show that more than 10.5 million domestic passengers travelled by air in 2025.
Analysts say the airlines’ warning may also be aimed at prompting government intervention, particularly around fuel pricing and supply regulation.
“This is as much a policy signal as it is an operational concern,” said an aviation analyst. “Airlines are under pressure, but they are also trying to push for a more sustainable pricing framework.”
For now, the sector remains on edge, with operators closely monitoring fuel availability and costs. If prices remain elevated or supplies tighten further, Nigeria’s aviation industry could face one of its most severe disruptions in recent years.
