Nigeria exported more than 55 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026, even as the country’s flagship Dangote Petroleum Refinery struggled with insufficient domestic supply, highlighting persistent imbalances in Africa’s largest oil producer.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed exports reached 55.39 million barrels between January and February, with 31.31 million barrels shipped in January and 24.08 million barrels in February.
Crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, before declining to 1.31 million bpd in February. Export volumes stood at 1.01 million bpd and 0.86 million bpd respectively over the two months.
Total crude output for the period was 81.94 million barrels, leaving about 26.55 million barrels available for domestic refining.
Despite this, the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has continued to face acute shortages of local crude feedstock, forcing it to turn to imports to sustain operations.
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The supply gap underscores structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, where a significant share of crude production is still exported, even as domestic refining capacity expands.
Industry sources say the refinery has consistently received less crude than required under a supply arrangement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC).
Before a recent increase in allocations, the refinery was receiving about five cargoes per month from NNPC, compared with a requirement of around 13 cargoes to operate at full capacity.
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Data from a senior refinery source showed that between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, the facility faced a cumulative crude shortfall of about 79.5 million barrels.
The refinery, which requires roughly 19.77 million barrels of crude per month, received significantly lower volumes during that period.
Monthly deliveries included 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January and 4.66 million in February. In March, only about 3.6 million barrels were supplied in the first half of the month.
In total, the refinery received about 29.21 million barrels over five and a half months, compared with an estimated requirement of 108.74 million barrels — a supply rate of just under 27%.
The situation has raised concerns about compliance with Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act, which prioritises domestic supply obligations before exports.
A refinery official said exporting crude while local refineries remain under-supplied contradicts the intent of the legislation and undermines efforts to reduce reliance on imported fuels.
The supply constraints have also had knock-on effects on fuel pricing. The Dangote refinery has implemented multiple price adjustments in recent months, with petrol prices rising above 1,300 naira per litre before easing to around 1,250 naira.
The company has attributed the increases partly to higher costs associated with importing crude, as well as global market pressures.
Geopolitical tensions, including disruptions linked to conflict involving Iran, have also contributed to volatility in global oil markets, pushing up input costs for refiners.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has long struggled with refining constraints, relying heavily on fuel imports despite its substantial crude output.
The Dangote refinery, valued at around $20 billion and located in Lagos, is expected to play a key role in reducing import dependence and improving energy security once fully operational.
However, analysts say ensuring consistent domestic crude supply will be critical to achieving these objectives.
“Without reliable feedstock, even the most advanced refinery cannot operate efficiently,” said an energy analyst based in Lagos.
As Nigeria seeks to maximise the benefits of its refining capacity, aligning crude supply policies with domestic processing needs remains a key challenge for policymakers and industry stakeholders.
