The International Monetary Fund said Burundi’s economy showed signs of stabilization in 2025 after authorities tightened fiscal discipline and benefited from a surge in export earnings but warned that large external imbalances and global uncertainty continued to threaten the country’s fragile recovery.
In a statement released after an Article IV consultation mission to Burundi, IMF staff said economic growth accelerated while inflation fell sharply, reflecting what it described as important policy efforts by the government under a broader macroeconomic reform agenda.
The IMF team, led by Alexandre Chailloux, visited Burundi from April 27 to May 8 for discussions with government officials, the central bank, private sector representatives and other stakeholders.
“Macroeconomic stabilization is attainable, provided the authorities maintain their commitment to fiscal discipline, tighten monetary policy, and advance toward exchange rate reform,” the IMF said.
Burundi’s economy expanded by an estimated 4.2 percent in 2025, driven largely by booming exports of gold and coffee, the country’s main foreign exchange earners. The IMF said higher international prices and increased gold production — which rose from about 400 kilograms in 2024 to 1.2 tonnes in 2025 — significantly boosted export revenues and eased pressure on the foreign exchange market.
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The country’s parallel market exchange rate premium nevertheless remained elevated at around 100 percent at the end of April 2026, underscoring persistent distortions in the foreign exchange system.
The IMF noted that Burundi’s fiscal deficit was expected to narrow to 3.4 percent of gross domestic product in the 2025/26 fiscal year from 5.5 percent the previous year, crediting ongoing fiscal consolidation measures.
However, it warned that revenue collection had underperformed, particularly in non-tax revenues, and said additional efforts would be required to meet medium-term deficit targets.
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Public debt stood at about 42 percent of GDP at the end of 2025 and remained sustainable, though the IMF classified Burundi as facing a high risk of debt distress.
Inflation, which peaked at about 45.5 percent in April 2025, dropped sharply to 10.8 percent by March 2026. The IMF attributed the decline largely to reduced reliance on central bank financing of government spending and improved coordination between fiscal and monetary policy.
The Fund projected economic growth at around 3.9 percent in 2026 before gradually strengthening to between 4 and 4.5 percent over the medium term, supported by reforms, improved macroeconomic stability and easing foreign exchange shortages.
Despite the positive outlook, the IMF cautioned that the recovery remained vulnerable to both domestic and global risks.
“The outlook is marked by large uncertainties related to the war in the Middle East,” the Fund said, warning that escalating geopolitical tensions could reverse Burundi’s recent gains from favourable export prices.
Domestically, the IMF said implementation delays, revenue shortfalls, governance weaknesses and political economy pressures could undermine stabilization efforts.
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The IMF urged Burundi to strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation through tax administration reforms, broader tax bases and better-targeted exemptions. It welcomed the rollout of the EKori integrated revenue management system and wider deployment of VAT machines aimed at improving compliance and reducing informality.
On expenditure, the Fund advised authorities against broad spending cuts that could hurt essential public services, instead calling for better-targeted fiscal measures while protecting health, education and public investment.
The IMF also pressed Burundi to reform its dual exchange rate system, arguing that a gradual and carefully sequenced unification process would improve competitiveness, attract investment and ease chronic fuel shortages.
“Tighter monetary policy is needed to consolidate recent disinflation gains and support foreign exchange reforms,” the Fund said.
While Burundi’s banking sector remained broadly stable, the IMF said vulnerabilities persisted due to negative real interest rates, weak private sector lending and heavy exposure to government debt.
The Fund additionally highlighted governance reforms, improvements in the electricity sector and greater transparency in the gold and coffee industries as critical to unlocking long-term growth and reducing poverty.
