Mozambique expects to earn about US$76.8 million from liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations in 2026, extending a decline in gas revenues as major offshore projects continue to ramp up unevenly.
Finance Minister Carla Louveira said the projected earnings follow a gradual downward trend in recent years, with the government collecting about US$91.8 million in gas revenues in 2024 and US$79.2 million in 2025.
The figures were published as part of the country’s Medium-Term Fiscal Framework and reflect slower-than-expected revenue growth despite Mozambique’s vast offshore natural gas reserves.
Authorities said part of the projected 2026 revenue would be channelled into the country’s sovereign wealth fund, while the remainder would support government spending under the national economic and social development programme.
According to the finance ministry, approximately $30.7 million is expected to be allocated to the sovereign wealth fund established to manage future resource income.
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Louveira said the fund was created with governance safeguards including parliamentary oversight, independent audits and periodic public reporting.
She described the current phase of gas sector development as “a historic opportunity to accelerate the country’s economic and social development”.
Mozambique is widely regarded as one of Africa’s most promising emerging LNG producers following the discovery of massive offshore gas reserves in the Rovuma Basin over the past decade.
However, progress in commercialising those resources has been slowed by security challenges, financing pressures and delays in large-scale project development.
Despite the near-term decline in revenues, the government maintains a positive long-term outlook as major offshore investments move closer to production.
Italian energy group approved a final investment decision worth $7.2 billion for the Coral North floating LNG project in October 2025, with production expected to begin in 2028.
At the same time, resumed progress on its Mozambique LNG project earlier this year after lifting force majeure imposed following jihadist attacks in Cabo Delgado province.
The project had been suspended for four years due to insecurity in northern Mozambique, where insurgent violence disrupted communities, infrastructure and energy operations.
The restart of the TotalEnergies-led development is seen as a major step toward reviving investor confidence in Mozambique’s gas sector.
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Officials estimate that LNG exports could eventually generate around $6 billion annually from the 2040s if planned projects are fully implemented and production scales up as expected.
Analysts say the long-term revenue potential could significantly transform Mozambique’s economy, strengthen foreign exchange reserves and increase public investment capacity.
However, they also caution that the country faces substantial risks related to governance, debt management and dependence on commodity revenues.
Resource-rich African economies have often struggled to translate extractive sector wealth into broad-based development because of corruption, volatility in global energy markets and unequal distribution of revenues.
Mozambique’s government has therefore emphasised the role of the sovereign wealth fund in ensuring long-term fiscal stability and avoiding excessive dependence on short-term gas earnings.
The country is also seeking to balance expectations for future LNG wealth against current economic pressures, including high public debt levels, infrastructure deficits and security concerns in gas-producing regions.
For now, officials remain focused on advancing delayed LNG projects while positioning Mozambique as one of Africa’s future energy export hubs.
