Ivory Coast expects cocoa production to rise sharply this season, marking the first increase in output in three years after weather shocks and disease ravaged harvests in the world’s largest cocoa-producing nation.
The West African country forecasts cocoa output of between 2 million and 2.1 million metric tonnes during the 2025/26 season, which runs until the end of September, according to the head of the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC).
The projection would represent an increase of around 10.5 percent compared with last season and could ease pressure on global cocoa markets after years of supply shortages that sent prices soaring to record levels.
“We currently stand at just over 1.7 million tonnes as of May 11 in terms of cocoa arrivals at the two ports,” CCC Director told Reuters in an interview conducted on Wednesday.
“This is a positive trend when compared to the last two seasons,” he said.
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Ivory Coast accounts for roughly 40 percent of global cocoa production, making its harvests crucial for the international chocolate industry and global commodity markets.
The country’s cocoa sector has struggled in recent years due to erratic weather patterns, ageing plantations and the rapid spread of swollen shoot disease, which damages cocoa trees and sharply reduces yields.
Production declines in Ivory Coast and neighbouring Ghana helped push cocoa prices to unprecedented highs over the past two years, increasing costs for chocolate manufacturers worldwide.
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But authorities now say higher global prices have provided farmers with additional income to reinvest in their plantations.
Kone said elevated cocoa prices over the past two seasons had enabled many growers to purchase fertiliser and improve farm maintenance, contributing to the recovery in output.
The forecast is significantly above the consensus estimate from a Reuters poll of traders and analysts published in March, which projected Ivory Coast’s crop at around 1.8 million tonnes for the season.
Despite expectations of stronger production, some traders say substantial quantities of cocoa remain unsold within the country.
A Europe-based cocoa trader told Reuters that many Ivorian exporters and farmers delayed sales in anticipation of higher international prices.
“There is still so much cocoa on the ground,” the trader said, adding that exporters were reluctant to sell before prices improved while farmers resisted selling at lower official farmgate prices.
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Analysts say increased exports from Ivory Coast in the coming weeks could reveal the extent of available supplies and influence prices in European cocoa warehouses and futures markets.
However, concerns are already emerging over prospects for the next crop cycle.
Kone warned that early field surveys suggested pod survival rates were slightly weaker than at the same stage last year, raising fears about the start of the next main harvest season.
“We have concerns about the end of this season, but above all about the start of the next main season,” he said.
“The counts do not show a situation similar to or better than last year’s.”
Cocoa production remains highly dependent on weather conditions, particularly rainfall during critical growing periods.
Several farmers and pod counters told Reuters that current cocoa fields were showing fewer flowers and young pods after dry weather damaged crops in some growing regions.
Three pod counters and five farmers interviewed by Reuters said drought conditions had affected tree development, reducing expectations for the coming harvest.
“We’re keeping a close eye on current weather conditions and that’s causing us a great deal of concern, especially for next year,” one pod counter said.
While the expected rebound in output could help stabilise global cocoa supplies in the short term, uncertainty over future harvests means markets are likely to remain sensitive to weather conditions in West Africa.
For millions of farmers across Ivory Coast, cocoa remains the backbone of rural livelihoods and one of the country’s most important export earners.
