A proposed US$4 billion takeover of a gold mining company in Mali is running into unexpected resistance from Chinese regulators, casting doubt over what was initially seen as a bold expansion into Africa’s booming mining sector.
At the centre of the controversy is Zijin Gold International’s planned acquisition of Allied Gold, a deal agreed earlier this year at a premium valuation during a period of record-high gold prices. However, regulators in Beijing are now questioning both the pricing and the broader geopolitical risks tied to operating in Mali, Africa’s third-largest gold producer.
China’s powerful National Development and Reform Commission has reportedly launched a review of the transaction, raising concerns that the acquisition may be overpriced and expose Chinese investors to instability in one of West Africa’s most volatile jurisdictions. Officials are said to be particularly wary of the risks associated with Mali’s evolving political and security landscape.
The deal had initially been viewed as a strategic move by Zijin to strengthen its global footprint at a time when gold prices surged above $5,500 per ounce, fuelling a wave of mergers and acquisitions across the mining industry. But sentiment has since shifted. Prices have cooled to around $4,500 per ounce, reducing the urgency and attractiveness of high-cost acquisitions.
Market signals are already reflecting that uncertainty. Shares in Allied Gold are trading significantly below the agreed offer price of C$44, suggesting that investors are increasingly sceptical about whether the deal will go through. The original deadline for completion, set for late May, has already passed without closure.
Beyond valuation concerns, the biggest sticking point appears to be Mali itself. The country has faced years of instability, including attacks by armed groups, tensions with Western governments, and increasing state intervention in the mining sector. Authorities have detained foreign executives in recent years and renegotiated contracts with major global operators, raising fears about long-term operational security.
Allied Gold’s flagship asset, the Sadiola mine, sits directly within this high-risk environment. For regulators in Beijing, this combination of political uncertainty and strategic exposure is proving difficult to ignore.
Despite the concerns, the deal also reflects a broader shift in global mining dynamics. Western companies have been steadily reducing their exposure to higher-risk African jurisdictions, often opting to divest assets or scale back operations. This retreat has opened the door for Chinese firms, which have been more aggressive in expanding across the continent.
Companies like Zijin Mining have already built a strong presence in countries including Mali, Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia, signalling China’s long-term interest in securing access to critical mineral resources.
For Africa, the stakes are high. Gold remains a key export commodity for many countries, including Mali, where it plays a central role in generating foreign exchange and supporting economic stability. The ability to attract sustained foreign investment is therefore closely tied to both political stability and regulatory clarity.
The uncertainty surrounding the Zijin-Allied deal highlights a deeper tension shaping Africa’s mining future. On one hand, rising commodity demand and high prices have made the continent’s resources increasingly attractive. On the other, geopolitical risks, governance concerns and shifting global alliances are making investors more cautious.
A spokesperson for Allied Gold has said both parties are still working towards completing the transaction, insisting that the deal retains strong commercial logic. Zijin Gold International has declined to comment publicly on the regulatory review.
Whether the acquisition proceeds or collapses, the episode underscores a key reality: Africa’s resource sector is entering a more complex phase where opportunity and risk are tightly intertwined. Investors are no longer just betting on minerals — they are also weighing politics, stability and long-term security.
