Morocco’s economy is expected to accelerate in 2026, driven by a strong recovery in agricultural output and sustained infrastructure investment, according to the latest economic outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The OECD forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.0 percent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.6 percent in 2025, before moderating to 3.9 percent in 2027.
The outlook highlights Morocco’s resilience amid growing global economic uncertainty and increasing geopolitical tensions affecting international trade and energy markets.
According to the OECD, economic growth this year has been supported by stronger private consumption and investment, helped by easing inflation, improving consumer confidence and continued public infrastructure spending.
The report projects a particularly strong recovery in agriculture, a sector that remains a key pillar of Morocco’s economy and a major source of employment.
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After several years of drought that weighed heavily on agricultural production, abundant winter rainfall has replenished reservoirs and improved water availability across much of the country.
The OECD estimates agricultural output will rebound by around 15 percent in 2026 before returning to more normal growth levels the following year.
At the same time, large-scale infrastructure projects are expected to continue supporting activity in manufacturing, construction and related industries.
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“Infrastructure investment will continue to support growth in manufacturing and construction,” the report said.
Despite the positive outlook, the OECD warned that Morocco remains vulnerable to developments in global energy markets because of its heavy reliance on imported fuel.
The country imports around 90 percent of its energy needs, exposing it to fluctuations in international oil and gas prices as well as geopolitical disruptions.
The organisation said recent energy market shocks are likely to push inflation higher in 2026, although the impact is expected to be temporary.
Inflation, which averaged just 0.7 percent in 2025, is projected to rise to 3.2 percent next year before easing again to 1.4 percent in 2027.
While higher prices could slow household spending, the OECD expects consumption to remain relatively strong.
“Consumption growth is expected to moderate somewhat because of higher inflation but remain solid,” the report noted.
The report also highlighted risks stemming from tensions in the Middle East, which could affect global commodity and energy markets.
While disruptions to fertiliser exports from competing producers could create opportunities for Morocco’s phosphate industry, prolonged instability could disrupt supplies of ammonia and sulphur, both of which are essential inputs for domestic fertiliser production.
Morocco remains one of the world’s leading phosphate producers, and phosphate fertilisers accounted for approximately 21 percent of export revenues in 2025.
The sector is expected to continue supporting export earnings and helping offset rising energy import costs.
The OECD forecasts continued growth in exports over the next two years, supported by stronger external demand and the expansion of Morocco’s industrial base.
However, the country’s current account deficit is expected to widen to 3.1 percent of GDP in 2026 and 3.3 percent in 2027 as higher import costs outweigh export gains.
The labour market is projected to improve gradually, with unemployment expected to decline further after falling from 13.4 percent in 2024 to 13 percent in 2025.
Nevertheless, joblessness remains particularly high among young people and women, standing at 37.2 percent and 20.5 percent respectively.
The OECD expects Bank Al-Maghrib to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.25 percent throughout 2026 and 2027, ending a cycle of monetary easing as policymakers monitor inflation developments.
The organisation also welcomed improvements in public finances, noting that the budget deficit is projected to stabilise at around 3 percent of GDP over the next two years, supported by stronger revenues and ongoing tax reforms.
Looking ahead, the OECD urged Morocco to accelerate structural reforms aimed at reducing informality, improving productivity and strengthening human capital.
It also called for expanded childcare services, stronger vocational training programmes, greater labour market flexibility and faster progress in renewable energy development to reduce dependence on imported fuels and strengthen long-term economic resilience.
