The Ghanaian cedi and Zambian kwacha are expected to appreciate against the US dollar in the coming week, supported by improved fundamentals and central bank actions, while Nigeria’s naira is projected to remain broadly stable, according to currency traders.
In Ghana, the cedi has already shown signs of recovery, trading at about 11.30 to the dollar, compared with 11.80 a week earlier, LSEG data showed.
Market participants say the local currency is benefiting from improved foreign exchange liquidity and reduced corporate demand for dollars, following sustained interventions by the Bank of Ghana.
“We expect the cedi to trade stronger against the dollar in the week ahead, supported by ebbed corporate FX demand and improved interbank liquidity,” said Andrews Akoto, head of trading at Absa Bank Ghana.
He added that recent central bank FX auctions have helped ease pressure on the market, with demand for dollars falling significantly below supply levels in the most recent auction.
The stronger cedi outlook reflects improved short-term sentiment, though analysts caution that the currency remains sensitive to import demand and external financing conditions.
In Zambia, the kwacha is also expected to extend gains, supported by strong copper prices and improving macroeconomic fundamentals.
The currency traded at about 17.54 per dollar, strengthening from 17.92 a week earlier, according to commercial bank quotes.
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Analysts say Zambia’s export earnings outlook remains positive, with the mining sector expected to post robust performance that could help offset pressure from higher global oil prices.
“The (mining) sector continues to anticipate robust full-year growth, which should help offset the negative impact of higher oil prices on the current account,” said Diego Barnuevo, a market analyst at Ebury.
He added that improving economic fundamentals and supportive policy conditions continue to underpin investor confidence in the kwacha.
In contrast, Nigeria’s naira is expected to remain largely stable, supported by continued dollar sales from the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The currency traded at around 1,360 to the dollar in the official market, unchanged from a week earlier, while the parallel market rate hovered around 1,390 to the dollar, reflecting persistent but contained divergence between official and street pricing.
Traders say the central bank’s ongoing dollar interventions and liquidity management operations, including open market operations, are helping to anchor the currency in the near term.
“We expect the naira to remain stable as the central bank continues to sell dollars and keep up its aggressive OMO programme to mop up naira,” one trader said.
The outlook highlights diverging currency dynamics across Africa, where commodity-linked currencies such as the kwacha are benefiting from stronger export prices, while intervention-driven currencies like the cedi and naira are being shaped more directly by central bank policy actions.
Analysts say short-term stability across the three currencies masks underlying structural pressures, including import dependence, external financing needs and exposure to global commodity and interest rate cycles.
For now, however, improved liquidity in Ghana, strong export earnings in Zambia, and sustained policy support in Nigeria are expected to keep regional currency markets relatively stable in the near term.
