Chad has received the biggest upward revision to its economic growth outlook among African countries, with the World Bank raising its 2026 forecast for the oil-producing nation by 1.5 percentage points to 5.2 percent.
The upgrade comes as much of the continent faces weaker expectations, with the World Bank cutting growth forecasts for 33 of Africa’s 54 economies and raising projections for only 14.
Chad’s improved outlook places it ahead of other upgraded economies including Libya, Ethiopia, Lesotho and Congo, marking a rare bright spot in a region facing slowing momentum.
The increase, however, is not being driven primarily by oil, despite crude accounting for about three-quarters of Chad’s exports and more than 40 percent of government revenue.
Instead, analysts point to a recovery in agriculture, which accounts for a significant share of the economy, following severe flooding that disrupted harvests in 2024. Increased public investment is also expected to support growth after years of limited government spending on infrastructure.
The government is simultaneously seeking to revive the oil sector through a 2025-2030 strategy aimed at increasing production to 250,000 barrels per day, as output has declined due to ageing fields and weak investment.
Chad’s projected growth stands out within the six-member Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa bloc. The World Bank forecasts expansion of 3.4 percent for Cameroon, 3.7 percent for Congo and 3 percent for Gabon, while Equatorial Guinea is expected to contract by 3.5 percent.
The economic upgrade comes as President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno intensifies efforts to attract foreign investment through the country’s “Tchad Connexion 2030” development plan.
The ambitious programme seeks to mobilise US$30 billion for 268 projects aimed at expanding agriculture, energy, mining, transport and digital infrastructure. The government says investment discussions in the United Arab Emirates generated around US$20.5 billion in pledges and memoranda of understanding.
Officials say the plan is designed to reduce dependence on oil by increasing agricultural productivity, expanding livestock exports and raising the contribution of mining to the economy.
Chad has also been courting European investors, with a delegation engaging French businesses over potential projects in energy, infrastructure, mining, agribusiness and transport.
But economists warn that major challenges remain. Investment pledges have not yet translated fully into actual financing, while poverty remains widespread, with the World Bank expecting the poverty rate to remain above 45 percent.
The country also remains vulnerable to climate shocks, including drought and flooding, as well as instability spilling over from neighbouring Sudan.
Chad’s economy is heavily reliant on informal employment, with most workers outside the formal sector, raising questions over whether stronger headline growth will translate into improved living standards.
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The World Bank estimates Sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 4 percent in 2026, ahead of global growth of 2.5 percent, but says recovery remains uneven across the continent.
For Chad, the challenge now is turning a sharp improvement in forecasts into sustained economic transformation.
