Morocco’s central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25 percent, saying inflation remains under control and economic growth is expected to strengthen despite external pressures, including higher energy costs.
Following its quarterly monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, Bank Al-Maghrib said inflation was on track to remain consistent with its medium-term price stability objective, supported by improving economic conditions.
The central bank expects inflation to average 1.5 percent in 2026 before rising moderately to 2.1 percent in 2027. Inflation had remained subdued at around 0.8 percent over the previous two years.
The decision to maintain the policy rate comes as Moroccan authorities balance the need to support economic growth while ensuring price stability.
Bank Al-Maghrib projected economic growth to accelerate to 5.2 percent in 2026, up from 4.9 percent in 2025, driven largely by a recovery in agricultural output following improved rainfall that helped end a seven-year drought.
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The central bank said agricultural performance would play a key role in overall growth, with the outlook assuming average harvest conditions. Under that scenario, economic expansion is expected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2027.
Morocco’s agricultural sector remains a major contributor to the economy, with rainfall patterns having a significant impact on production, rural incomes and overall growth performance.
The central bank also warned of pressure on Morocco’s external accounts, forecasting the current account deficit to widen to 4 percent of gross domestic product in 2026 from 2.4 percent in the previous year.
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The increase is expected to be driven mainly by a rise in energy imports, particularly due to higher global energy costs.
Bank Al-Maghrib said the impact of conflict in the Middle East was expected to push Morocco’s energy import bill higher, with costs projected to increase by 26 percent to 135 billion dirhams ($14 billion) in 2026.
The bill is expected to decline to 114.4 billion dirhams in 2027 as energy market conditions stabilise.
Despite the pressure from energy imports, the central bank said several key sources of foreign currency earnings were expected to remain strong.
Phosphate and fertiliser exports, remittances from Moroccans living abroad, tourism revenues and foreign direct investment are all expected to increase, helping to support the country’s external position.
Foreign exchange reserves are projected to continue rising, reaching 542 billion dirhams ($57 billion) by 2027, enough to cover slightly more than six months of imports.
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The central bank’s decision reflects confidence that current monetary conditions are sufficient to support economic activity while keeping inflation expectations anchored.
Morocco has faced several economic challenges in recent years, including drought conditions, rising food prices and higher import costs linked to global market disruptions.
However, improved agricultural conditions, stronger tourism activity and continued investment flows have supported expectations of a gradual recovery.
The unchanged interest rate also signals that policymakers see no immediate need for further monetary tightening or easing, as inflation remains moderate and growth prospects improve.
