Sub-Saharan Africa’s transition to a green economy could support up to 84.5 million jobs by 2050 if governments accelerate policy reforms and investment, according to a report published on Monday.
The report by FSD Africa, human resources consultancy Shortlist and the Shell Foundation estimates the region’s green economy could generate between 3.8 million and 7.9 million direct and indirect jobs by 2030, rising to between 65.9 million and 84.5 million by mid-century.
It said the difference between the lower and upper projections reflected the impact of policy choices, technology adoption and climate risks on employment growth.
The report identified clean cooking as the largest source of future green jobs, with the sector expected to create up to 2.5 million jobs by 2030 and about 26.3 million by 2050 under its high-growth scenario.
Waste recycling could generate around 1.08 million jobs by 2030 and 14.7 million by 2050, while off-grid solar home systems could support 960,000 jobs by 2030 and 14.4 million by 2050.
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Electric two- and three-wheelers could create about 630,000 jobs by 2030, increasing to 10.1 million by 2050, the report said.
The study said targeted government action, including increased investment in clean cooking, stronger regulation for electric mobility and better enforcement of circular economy policies, would be key to unlocking the higher employment scenario.
It warned that climate change could reduce job creation by weakening agricultural output, disrupting production and slowing economic activity, with hydropower and solar-powered irrigation among the sectors most exposed to climate risks.
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While technological advances could reduce some direct employment through automation, the report said Africa’s green economy would continue to depend heavily on labour-intensive services such as installation, maintenance, distribution and customer support.
East and Southern Africa are projected to account for 58 percent of the region’s green jobs by 2050 despite representing only around 40 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population, while West and Central Africa would account for the remaining 42 percent.
The report said most green jobs would come from service-based activities rather than manufacturing or large infrastructure projects. Indirect employment linked to installation, logistics, operations and distribution is expected to account for 56 percent of green jobs by 2030, rising to 62 percent by 2050.
It also forecast that informal employment would decline as green industries mature, falling from between 85 and 92 percent by 2030 to between 55 and 75 percent by 2050 as larger businesses expand and demand grows for certified technicians.
The report called for reforms to technical and vocational education and training programmes to equip workers with specialised skills in areas including battery management, Internet of Things-enabled remote operations and carbon emissions measurement.
