African economies could face a sharper slowdown this year if the conflict in the Middle East persists, with disruptions to fuel, food, fertiliser and trade routes threatening to intensify inflation and weaken already fragile growth across the continent, according to a report released Thursday.
The warning came in a joint report by two United Nations agencies, the African Union and the African Development Bank, presented during a meeting of the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Tangier.
The report said Africa’s economic growth in 2026 could be cut by 0.2 percentage points if the conflict lasts for more than six months, with the impact likely to spread through shipping delays, higher import bills and supply shortages.
“The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertiliser supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent,” the report said.
The Middle East is a critical trade partner for Africa, accounting for 15.8 percent of the continent’s imports and 10.9 percent of exports, according to the report. Prolonged instability in the region, especially around key maritime chokepoints, could therefore have wide-ranging consequences for African economies that remain heavily dependent on imported fuel, fertiliser and food.
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While the report did not put a precise number on the likely inflation impact, it warned that the crisis could quickly evolve into a broader cost-of-living shock, especially for low-income and import-dependent countries already struggling with debt and currency weakness.
Particular concern was raised over fertiliser supplies, which the report said may prove as disruptive as the rise in oil prices.
“Disruptions to Gulf liquefied natural gas supply would affect ammonia and urea production, raising fertiliser costs and constraining supply during the crucial March-to-May planting season,” it said.
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That could hit agricultural output across large parts of the continent and worsen food insecurity at a time when several countries are already battling climate shocks, supply bottlenecks and elevated staple prices.
Not all African countries would be affected in the same way. The report said some energy exporters, including Nigeria and Mozambique, could benefit from higher oil and gas prices, at least in the short term.
But for many net importers, the economic burden is expected to outweigh any indirect gains from rerouted trade or logistics activity.
The report noted that transport diversions are already boosting activity at ports such as Maputo in Mozambique, Durban in South Africa, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and Mauritius, while Kenya and Ethiopia are emerging as important regional logistics hubs. Reuters separately reported that shipping rerouting around Africa is already increasing pressure and traffic at major ports, including Tanger Med in Morocco.
Beyond trade and prices, the report also warned of a broader geopolitical fallout, saying a wider Middle East war could sharpen global competition for influence in Africa among powers including the United States, Gulf countries, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey.
It also said rising geopolitical tension would likely increase the cost of humanitarian operations in conflict-hit areas such as Sudan and the Horn of Africa.
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With public finances already stretched, the report urged African governments to act quickly by strengthening domestic revenue collection, coordinating fuel procurement, setting up emergency food corridors and deploying targeted social protection for vulnerable households. It also advised oil-producing countries to save any windfall gains rather than spend them immediately.
Claver Gatete, executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, said it was still too early to fully quantify the impact of the war on African growth and inflation, but warned that the risks were mounting.
For many African economies, the concern is no longer whether the shock will be felt — but how long they can absorb it.
The Impact of Middle East Tensions on Africa
Africa is being warned of a deeper economic slowdown in 2026 if the war in the Middle East drags on because the continent is exposed through three key channels: higher energy prices, trade disruption, and fertilizer supply shocks. A new joint policy brief by the African Development Bank, African Union Commission, UNDP, and UNECA says African economies could lose 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth this year if the conflict lasts beyond six months.
That warning matters because much of Africa is still growing below its pre-COVID trend, meaning many countries are already economically fragile before this new external shock. The report says the longer the conflict continues — especially if shipping routes and Gulf supply chains remain disrupted — the more likely it is that African countries will face higher import costs, slower trade, tighter fiscal conditions and renewed inflationary pressure.
A major pressure point is oil and fuel. Many African economies are net oil importers, so when Middle East conflict pushes up crude prices, governments, businesses and consumers all feel it. Fuel becomes more expensive, transport costs rise, and those increases quickly spread into food prices, electricity costs and general inflation. That is why the report warns that what begins as a geopolitical conflict abroad can quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa.
The second major risk is fertilizer and food production. The Middle East, especially the Gulf, is deeply tied to global energy and fertilizer markets. The report says disruptions to Gulf LNG supplies could hit the production of ammonia and urea, making fertilizer scarcer and more expensive just as many African countries enter critical planting periods. That raises the risk of weaker harvests and another round of food inflation later in the year.
There is also a broader trade and logistics angle. The Middle East accounts for a meaningful share of Africa’s trade — about 15.8% of imports and 10.9% of exports, according to the report. If shipping through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, African importers could face higher freight and insurance costs, longer delivery times and supply shortages. That would especially hurt countries dependent on imported fuel, food, machinery and industrial inputs.
Importantly, the pain will not be evenly spread. Some countries may see short-term gains. Oil exporters such as Nigeria and gas-linked economies such as Mozambique could benefit from higher energy prices, while some ports and logistics hubs may gain from shipping rerouted around southern Africa. But for most of the continent — especially fuel importers with weak currencies, high debt and limited reserves — the net effect is expected to be negative.
A strong local angle for your audience is that the report reinforces fears that African central banks may struggle to cut rates or sustain currency stability if the conflict persists. Higher imported inflation, weaker exchange rates and rising budget pressure could force governments to spend more on fuel support, food imports or social protection at a time when many are already fiscally stretched. That is what makes this not just a foreign affairs story, but also a business, inflation and household survival story.
