African economies could face a sharper slowdown this year if the conflict in the Middle East persists, with disruptions to fuel, food, fertiliser and trade routes threatening to intensify inflation and weaken already fragile growth across the continent, according to a report released Thursday.
The warning came in a joint report by two United Nations agencies, the African Union and the African Development Bank, presented during a meeting of the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Tangier.
The report said Africa’s economic growth in 2026 could be cut by 0.2 percentage points if the conflict lasts for more than six months, with the impact likely to spread through shipping delays, higher import bills and supply shortages.
“The longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertiliser supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent,” the report said.
The Middle East is a critical trade partner for Africa, accounting for 15.8 percent of the continent’s imports and 10.9 percent of exports, according to the report. Prolonged instability in the region, especially around key maritime chokepoints, could therefore have wide-ranging consequences for African economies that remain heavily dependent on imported fuel, fertiliser and food.
While the report did not put a precise number on the likely inflation impact, it warned that the crisis could quickly evolve into a broader cost-of-living shock, especially for low-income and import-dependent countries already struggling with debt and currency weakness.
Particular concern was raised over fertiliser supplies, which the report said may prove as disruptive as the rise in oil prices.
“Disruptions to Gulf liquefied natural gas supply would affect ammonia and urea production, raising fertiliser costs and constraining supply during the crucial March-to-May planting season,” it said.
That could hit agricultural output across large parts of the continent and worsen food insecurity at a time when several countries are already battling climate shocks, supply bottlenecks and elevated staple prices.
Not all African countries would be affected in the same way. The report said some energy exporters, including Nigeria and Mozambique, could benefit from higher oil and gas prices, at least in the short term.
But for many net importers, the economic burden is expected to outweigh any indirect gains from rerouted trade or logistics activity.
The report noted that transport diversions are already boosting activity at ports such as Maputo in Mozambique, Durban in South Africa, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and Mauritius, while Kenya and Ethiopia are emerging as important regional logistics hubs. Reuters separately reported that shipping rerouting around Africa is already increasing pressure and traffic at major ports, including Tanger Med in Morocco.
Beyond trade and prices, the report also warned of a broader geopolitical fallout, saying a wider Middle East war could sharpen global competition for influence in Africa among powers including the United States, Gulf countries, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey.
It also said rising geopolitical tension would likely increase the cost of humanitarian operations in conflict-hit areas such as Sudan and the Horn of Africa.
With public finances already stretched, the report urged African governments to act quickly by strengthening domestic revenue collection, coordinating fuel procurement, setting up emergency food corridors and deploying targeted social protection for vulnerable households. It also advised oil-producing countries to save any windfall gains rather than spend them immediately.
Claver Gatete, executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, said it was still too early to fully quantify the impact of the war on African growth and inflation, but warned that the risks were mounting.
For many African economies, the concern is no longer whether the shock will be felt — but how long they can absorb it.
