Bank of America Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan says trade tensions triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are likely to ease in 2026, following a year in which higher duties disrupted global trade flows and sent shockwaves through the US economy.
Speaking in a December interview aired on CBS News’ Face the Nation, Moynihan said the bank now expects a shift toward de-escalation rather than further escalation, with average US tariffs stabilising around 15%. He described the projected increase from a baseline 10% rate as manageable for most countries, noting that higher tariffs would mainly apply to trading partners unwilling to commit to US purchases or reduce non-tariff barriers.
Moynihan said moving from a uniform 10% tariff to an average of 15% across major trading partners would not represent a major economic shock, adding that internal assessments at Bank of America suggest trade policy pressures are beginning to level off. He pointed to signs that the administration is edging toward a clearer endpoint after months of uncertainty.
Tariffs were a major concern for US businesses in 2025, particularly after the administration announced sweeping measures in April and expanded them further in July. Estimates showed average US tariff rates rising sharply compared to levels before Trump returned to the White House, intensifying cost pressures across supply chains.
However, Moynihan noted that China remains a more complex case, as do North American trading partners ahead of a scheduled review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement next year. He said negotiations with these partners could still prove contentious, even as broader global trade tensions cool.
For small businesses, Moynihan said the impact of tariffs was most acute earlier in the year, particularly in the second quarter. As rates eased and expectations became clearer, some pressure lifted. He added that labour availability and immigration policy uncertainty now rank higher than tariffs among the concerns facing smaller firms.
According to Moynihan, while trade policy will remain a key variable in 2026, the overall direction suggests fewer surprises ahead, offering businesses and investors greater visibility after a volatile year for global commerce.
