The Bank of Central African States (BEAC) expects foreign exchange reserves in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) to recover gradually, targeting about US$11.8 billion by 2026, according to its latest economic projections.
The forecast comes after a recent decline in the region’s external buffers. BEAC estimates that reserves will fall to around US$11.45 billion in 2025, down from roughly US$13.1 billion in 2024, reflecting weaker foreign asset accumulation amid persistent import demand and uneven export performance across member states.
Despite the drop, the regional central bank said the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by tighter monetary policy, renewed engagement with international lenders and efforts to diversify export revenues.
Under BEAC projections, reserves are expected to rise further to about US$12.5 billion in 2027 before exceeding US$12.6 billion in 2028. At that level, foreign assets would cover just over four months of imports, a threshold generally considered adequate to support external stability, though slightly below the estimated 4.25 months of import cover at the end of 2025.
CEMAC comprises six countries Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon which share the CFA franc, a currency pegged to the euro and backed by pooled foreign exchange reserves managed by the BEAC.
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The region has long faced vulnerability to external shocks, particularly swings in global oil prices. Hydrocarbons remain the main source of export earnings for most CEMAC states, leaving reserve levels highly exposed to movements in international energy markets.
To support a rebound in reserves, the BEAC pointed to several key factors. These include the conclusion of new and ongoing programmes with the International Monetary Fund, aimed at strengthening fiscal discipline, restoring macroeconomic stability and unlocking external financing.
Most CEMAC countries are currently implementing or negotiating IMF-backed reform programmes following years of rising debt, fiscal slippages and sluggish growth. The BEAC said sustained adherence to these programmes would be critical to rebuilding confidence among investors and development partners.
The central bank also expects stronger contributions from non-oil exports, notably natural gas, gold and other mining products, as governments seek to reduce dependence on crude oil. Investments in extractive industries and gradual formalisation of mining activities are beginning to broaden the region’s export base, though progress remains uneven.
Another pillar of the strategy is stricter enforcement of foreign exchange regulations. The BEAC has moved to tighten rules on the repatriation of export proceeds, seeking to limit capital outflows and ensure that foreign currency earnings are channelled through the regional financial system.
On the monetary front, the BEAC has maintained a restrictive stance to support the CFA franc peg. The central bank has raised its key policy rate to 4.75 percent and tightened refinancing conditions for commercial banks, measures designed to stabilise the currency, contain inflationary pressures and curb excessive demand for foreign exchange.
While risks remain including volatile commodity prices, security challenges in parts of the region and tighter global financial conditions the BEAC said its medium-term outlook points to a gradual stabilisation of external balances.
For CEMAC member states, rebuilding foreign exchange reserves is seen as essential to safeguarding the monetary union, reinforcing confidence in the CFA franc and laying the groundwork for more resilient and sustainable economic growth.
