Below-average rainfall across most cocoa-growing regions in Ivory Coast is raising concerns over the development of beans for the latter part of the mid-crop harvest, farmers said on Monday, warning of potential supply tightness in the coming months.
The world’s leading cocoa producer is currently in its rainy season, which typically runs from April to mid-November. While harvesting for the March-to-August mid-crop is gaining momentum, with strong volumes expected this month, inadequate rainfall in several regions is threatening the growth of smaller pods due for harvest between July and August.
Farmers reported that only the western region of Soubre and the central area of Yamoussoukro recorded above-average rainfall last week. Elsewhere, conditions were described as unfavourable for crop development due to insufficient soil moisture and unusually high temperatures.
In the eastern region of Abengourou, farmer Leopold Kamenan said plantations were struggling after receiving just 18.1 millimetres of rain last week, around 6 millimetres below the five-year average. “Trees need more water to grow well,” he said, warning that continued dryness could hinder pod development.
Similar concerns were raised in the southern regions of Agboville and Divo, where rainfall also fell short of seasonal norms.
In the west-central hub of Daloa and the central region of Bongouanou, farmers warned that a prolonged dry spell could reduce bean size and quality. Albert N’Zue, a farmer near Daloa, said only 16.4 millimetres of rain was recorded last week — about 5.2 millimetres below the five-year average.
“If there isn’t enough rain, the beans will be very small and of poor quality,” he said.
Across the country, weekly average temperatures ranged between 28.3 and 32.2 degrees Celsius, further exacerbating moisture stress on cocoa trees. Farmers said that unless heavier rains arrive before mid-May, the development of smaller pods could be jeopardised, potentially tightening supply toward the end of the mid-crop season.
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The mid-crop, which typically accounts for a smaller share of annual output compared to the main crop harvested from October to March, remains a critical component of global cocoa supply chains. Any disruption in Ivory Coast — which produces roughly 40 percent of the world’s cocoa — can have significant implications for international markets.
Traders and industry analysts closely monitor weather patterns in the country during this period, as rainfall variability can influence both yields and bean quality. Poorly developed pods often result in smaller beans, which are less desirable for processors and can affect pricing.
Despite the current concerns, farmers noted that harvesting activity remains strong for mature pods already ready for collection, with robust volumes expected to reach markets in May. However, attention is increasingly shifting to the condition of younger pods that depend heavily on consistent rainfall over the coming weeks.
The situation underscores the vulnerability of cocoa production to climate variability, with irregular rainfall and rising temperatures posing growing challenges to farmers across West Africa.
If dry conditions persist, farmers warn that the final phase of the mid-crop could fall short of expectations, adding pressure to global cocoa supplies already sensitive to weather disruptions and fluctuating demand.
