Signs of activity at the Heglig oil field, straddling the volatile border between Sudan and South Sudan, are emerging as the first practical test of a fragile trilateral agreement involving South Sudan, Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Local officials and industry sources said technical teams were deployed on Dec. 28 to assess facilities and prepare for a possible restart of operations at Heglig, according to Radio Tamazuj. No timetable has been announced, with any resumption dependent on security conditions and the effective implementation of the Dec. 10 pact.
The tentative moves highlight both the promise and the peril of the agreement, reached against the backdrop of Sudan’s devastating civil war and the heavy economic toll it has taken on both countries. Oil remains the backbone of South Sudan’s economy and a crucial source of transit revenue for Sudan, making stability around shared infrastructure a strategic priority.
Heglig has long been a flashpoint. The oil field lies near the disputed border and has been repeatedly shut down by conflict, sabotage and political standoffs. Since fighting erupted in Sudan in April 2023 between the army and the RSF, oil installations and pipelines have been targeted or forced offline, disrupting flows and starving both governments of badly needed income.
The World Bank says oil accounts for more than 90 percent of South Sudan’s export earnings, underlining Juba’s extreme dependence on crude revenues to fund basic state functions. Sudan, meanwhile, relies on fees for transporting South Sudanese oil through its territory to export terminals on the Red Sea, providing one of the few remaining sources of hard currency for Khartoum amid economic collapse.
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Under the trilateral understanding announced earlier this month, the parties committed to securing oil infrastructure and facilitating operations despite the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Analysts say Heglig’s fate will be a key indicator of whether the deal can move beyond political statements to deliver concrete economic relief.
So far, officials have been cautious. Sources say assessments are under way to determine the extent of damage, the availability of equipment and staff, and whether conditions are safe enough for sustained operations. Any restart would require guarantees that facilities will not be caught in renewed fighting or used as leverage by armed actors.
Beyond immediate security risks, deeper economic constraints loom. South Sudan’s finances remain under severe strain after years of borrowing against future oil revenues. In November 2025, Agence Ecofin reported that Juba was seeking a US$2.5 billion oil-backed loan from China and India to stabilise public finances weakened by chronic deficits and debt obligations.
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Such borrowing has drawn criticism from economists and civil society groups, who warn that opaque management of oil revenues has fuelled corruption, widened budget gaps and left the country vulnerable to prolonged economic instability.
Sudan faces its own crisis. The war has crippled state institutions, slashed output and driven inflation to extreme levels, leaving authorities desperate to preserve any remaining revenue streams. Oil transit fees from South Sudan are among the few sources of foreign exchange not directly tied to humanitarian aid.
For both countries, the stakes at Heglig are therefore high. A successful restart could provide a modest but symbolically important boost to revenues and signal that limited economic cooperation is still possible despite political fragmentation and conflict.
Failure, however, would reinforce doubts about the viability of the trilateral pact and deepen fears that oil infrastructure will continue to be collateral damage in Sudan’s war with devastating spillover effects for South Sudan.
As engineers inspect pipelines and facilities near the border, diplomats and economists alike are watching closely. In a region where oil has long been both a lifeline and a trigger for conflict, Heglig now stands as a litmus test of whether fragile agreements can deliver stability or whether the cycle of disruption will continue.
