Western officials have warned that China significantly increased its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2025 and is poised to deepen cooperation further this year, raising serious doubts about Europe’s efforts to influence Beijing toward a resolution. According to confidential assessments shared with Bloomberg, Beijing has become a critical enabler of Russia’s military operations, particularly through the supply of dual-use components and critical minerals essential for drone production.
US Ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, underscored China’s central role, stating at the Munich Security Conference, “China could call Vladimir Putin and end this war tomorrow. This war is being completely enabled by China.” These assessments suggest a stark contrast with the public messaging from European leaders, who have largely maintained a cautious stance toward China while seeking closer trade relations.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking at the same conference, reiterated Beijing’s official position, asserting that China is not directly involved in the conflict and does not have the final say in any political settlement. Wang emphasized that China continues to advocate for peace talks and maintains cordial relations with Ukraine, a stance highlighted during his meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.
Despite this official position, Western leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, criticized China for enabling Russia. Pistorius pointed out that Moscow’s war efforts are supported not only by China but also by Iran and North Korea, and warned that Russia is leveraging forums like BRICS to advance anti-Western agendas. Analysts note that China’s support for Russia may serve Beijing’s strategic interests, as the war keeps Europe focused on Ukraine, potentially weakening Western unity on broader geopolitical challenges in Asia.
Trade data underscores the growing closeness between the two powers. Bilateral trade increased to $253 billion in 2024, up from $152 billion in 2021, with Russia moving from China’s 10th-largest trading partner to its fifth. Investigations indicate that China’s assistance has helped Moscow circumvent Western sanctions and acquire drone-building capabilities to wage attacks in Ukraine.
While Xi Jinping’s relationship with Vladimir Putin has strengthened over the past decade, historical rivalries between the two nations still persist. Nevertheless, Western officials believe that their current incentives to cooperate. particularly against shared strategic concerns, have outweighed past tensions, enabling a partnership that complicates diplomatic efforts for peace in Ukraine.
Analysts say European leaders have continued to pursue engagement with China to influence its position on global security while simultaneously seeking economic benefits, despite Beijing’s deepening support for Russia. The ongoing dynamic illustrates the complex interplay of trade, diplomacy, and military strategy shaping the Ukraine conflict and broader global security landscape.
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