China’s exports to the United States extended their steep decline in November, falling almost 29 percent year-on-year despite a recent trade deal between Beijing and Washington, official data has shown.
The drop marked the eighth consecutive month of double-digit falls in shipments to the world’s largest consumer market, underscoring the limited immediate impact of the October truce agreed by Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump.
Overall, however, China’s exports surprised on the upside. Outbound shipments rose 5.9 percent in November, reversing October’s unexpected contraction and beating economists’ forecasts in a Reuters poll. Imports grew 1.9 percent, held back by a prolonged real-estate slump and weak consumer confidence.
Analysts say high US tariffs remain a major drag on Chinese goods. “Despite the trade truce, the US still imposes higher tariffs on China than on many other countries,” said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis. He noted that Chinese firms are increasingly routing shipments through third countries to reach the US market.
US tariffs on Chinese goods currently average 47.5 percent, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, while China’s levies on American imports stand at around 32 percent.
Even with the sharp fall in US-bound shipments, China’s overall export performance remained resilient thanks to strong demand from other major partners. Exports to ASEAN rose more than 8 percent, while shipments to the European Union climbed nearly 15 percent.
From January to November, China recorded a trade surplus of US$1.076 trillion, up 21.6 percent from a year earlier.
Slow start under trade pact
Under the October agreement, both governments pledged to gradually roll back tariffs, ease controls on critical minerals and high-tech goods, and boost bilateral purchases of products such as American soybeans.
China’s rare earth exports reached 5,494 tonnes in November, up 24 percent from a year ago, amid reports that Beijing is drafting a new licensing regime to streamline shipments.
Soybean imports rose 13 percent year-on-year to 8.1 million tonnes in November, though they fell from October levels. The figures suggest a slow beginning to China’s commitment to buy 12 million tonnes of US soybeans by the end of the year.
Policy outlook
Beijing is now preparing for its annual Central Economic Work Conference, where leaders will set broad priorities and discuss next year’s growth target and fiscal stance. Detailed targets will be unveiled at the March “Two Sessions” parliamentary meetings.
Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the rebound in exports should help offset weak domestic consumption, keeping China on track to meet its “around 5 percent” growth target for 2025.
Background: China–US Trade Tensions
China and the United States remain locked in a protracted trade dispute dating back to 2018, when Washington began imposing punitive tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods.
- The two sides reached a limited “Phase One” trade deal in 2020, but many tariffs remained in place.
- Subsequent negotiations stalled amid wider geopolitical tensions, supply chain concerns and restrictions on technology transfers.
Even after the October 2025 trade truce, the tariff environment remains far from normal. Current duties on Chinese exports to the US average about 47.5 percent, much higher than for other major trading partners. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs remain at around 32 percent.
The elevated tariffs are a key reason Chinese manufacturers have rerouted production or final assembly to third countries in Southeast Asia and Europe, a trend economists say is becoming structurally embedded.
Exports remain a major driver of China’s economic growth, especially as weak domestic demand continues to weigh on consumption.
- China’s factories have increasingly leaned on Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa to offset weakness in rich-country demand.
- ASEAN overtook the EU and the US in 2020 to become China’s largest trading partner.
- China’s shipments to the EU, despite political strains, continue to grow thanks to strong demand for electric vehicles, solar panels, machinery and electronics.
China’s export resilience to non-US markets has helped sustain overall trade surpluses even while shipments to America decline sharply.
