Climate change could wipe out up to 65% of Africa’s grazing land by 2100, study warns

Africa could lose up to 65 percent of its grasslands by the end of the century due to climate change, threatening food security, livelihoods and the continent’s livestock sector, a study published Monday by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) said.

The report, titled “Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems”, maps the “safe climatic space” for grazing, defined by temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind conditions suitable for cattle, sheep, and goats. The analysis found that much of Africa is already approaching the upper limits of these thresholds.

Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced, Africa’s grassland area could decline by 16 percent by 2100. However, under a business-as-usual trajectory, with emissions continuing to rise, losses could reach as high as 65 percent.

“Temperatures across large parts of Africa are already near the upper limit of the climatic range that grazing systems can tolerate,” said Prajal Pradhan, assistant professor at the University of Groningen and a PIK researcher. “Our projections show that the changes in climate will likely exceed the adaptive capacity of traditional coping strategies, such as switching livestock species or migrating herds.”

The study warns that more than 110 million livestock farmers across the continent risk losing their primary source of income. Pastoral areas in the Ethiopian Highlands, the East African Rift Valley, the Kalahari Basin, and the Congo Basin are expected to experience the most severe impacts. In regions like the Kalahari, which spans over 2.5 million square kilometres across Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa, grazing conditions are projected to deteriorate significantly. Coastal grazing lands, with no space for herds to move, could disappear entirely.

Livestock farming is a critical socio-economic pillar in Africa, contributing on average around 15 percent of GDP in many countries. Pastoral systems account for roughly 80 percent of livestock production, providing food, employment, and income for millions of smallholders. The projected loss of grazing land could exacerbate inequalities, destabilize agrifood systems, and put additional pressure on vulnerable communities already facing food insecurity and political fragility.

Globally, the report estimates that between 36 percent and 50 percent of current grazing land could become unviable by 2100. This would affect between 110 million and 140 million livestock farmers and 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion grazing animals, the study found. Between 51 percent and 81 percent of those impacted live in low-income countries.

“Climate change is not only highly disruptive to livestock farming, it is also partly driven by the sector itself,” Pradhan added. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), meat and dairy production account for approximately 14.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

The findings underscore the urgency for adaptive measures, including changes in grazing management, livestock mobility, and the adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices. Without such interventions, experts warn, the livelihoods of millions of African pastoralists could be at risk, alongside the continent’s broader food security.

The PIK study adds to a growing body of evidence showing that climate change threatens critical agricultural systems worldwide, with disproportionate impacts on low-income countries and communities that depend heavily on natural resources.

“Failure to act could deepen existing inequalities and undermine efforts to ensure sustainable development,” Pradhan said.