Five of the world’s leading coffee producing nations are experiencing significantly more days of extreme heat that harm coffee crops, raising concerns about the long term stability of global supply, according to new analysis.
The countries, which together account for roughly 75 percent of global coffee production, are recording an average of 57 additional days each year of temperatures considered damaging to coffee plants. The findings highlight how climate change is intensifying risks for a commodity that underpins millions of livelihoods and a multibillion dollar global industry.
Among the most vulnerable is Ethiopia, widely regarded as the birthplace of coffee. More than four million Ethiopian households depend primarily on coffee cultivation for income. The crop contributes close to a third of the country’s export earnings, making it both an economic pillar and a social lifeline.
Farmers are already reporting visible shifts in weather patterns. Dejene Dadi, general manager of the Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union, has warned that extreme heat is increasingly disrupting production cycles, affecting flowering, bean development and yields. Rising temperatures can stress coffee plants, reduce quality and make crops more vulnerable to pests and diseases.
Coffee, particularly Arabica varieties, is highly sensitive to climatic conditions. It thrives within a narrow temperature range, typically between 18°C and 22°C. Sustained exposure to higher temperatures can stunt growth and diminish flavour profiles, which are critical in premium export markets.
Beyond Ethiopia, other major producers in Latin America, Africa and Asia are confronting similar pressures. Heatwaves, erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts are reshaping traditional growing zones. In some areas, farmers are being forced to move cultivation to higher altitudes where cooler conditions persist, though suitable land is limited.
The implications extend far beyond farm communities. Global supply disruptions could lead to increased price volatility in international markets. Coffee prices have historically reacted sharply to climate shocks, as seen during severe droughts in major producing countries. A sustained decline in output from multiple top producers would likely tighten global inventories.
For African producers, the stakes are particularly high. Coffee supports millions of smallholder farmers who often lack access to irrigation, climate resilient seed varieties and financial buffers. Without adaptation measures, extreme heat could deepen rural poverty and widen economic vulnerabilities.
Climate scientists have consistently warned that tropical agricultural systems are among the most exposed to rising global temperatures. While some regions may experience short term gains from longer growing seasons, coffee producing belts are generally projected to shrink under high emission scenarios.
Adaptation strategies are emerging. Agricultural research institutions are developing heat tolerant coffee varieties, while cooperatives are promoting agroforestry practices that integrate shade trees to reduce temperature stress. Improved water management and soil conservation techniques can also mitigate some impacts.
However, experts caution that adaptation alone may not fully offset accelerating climate pressures. Long term sustainability of coffee production will depend heavily on global emissions trajectories and coordinated climate action.
For countries like Ethiopia, where coffee is deeply intertwined with national identity and economic stability, the threat is existential. As warming trends intensify, the question is no longer whether climate change will affect coffee production, but how quickly producers can adjust to safeguard both livelihoods and supply chains.
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